Market Research Logo

Cote d'Ivoire Country Risk Report Q2 2019

Cote d'Ivoire Country Risk Report Q2 2019

Key View:

Côte d'Ivoire will continue to see relatively robust economic growth in the coming quarters, driven by the construction, transport and mining sectors. However, a gradual decline in cocoa production relative to 2017 will add headwinds to the agricultural sector, leading to a modest deceleration in headline growth relative to recent years.

Relations among high-level politicians in Côte d'Ivoire's ruling RHDP party are likely to become increasingly fractious in the coming quarters, as the ruling coalition increasingly focuses on finding a successor to current President Alassane Ouattara ahead of the 2020 elections. Weaker cohesion will likely see policy formation slow in the coming years, and the risk of army mutinies will continue.

Côte d'Ivoire's current account deficit will narrow in 2018 on the back of increasing cocoa prices – boosting the value of exports – although demand for capital goods imports will prevent the deficit from narrowing significantly. However, we do not expect the deficit will be a significant threat to the country's external position, given robust inward investment.

Côte d'Ivoire's budget deficit will follow a narrowing trend due to structural fiscal reforms. However deficits will persist due to large capital spending projects and generous payouts to former rebel soldiers. While this will lead to an increase in borrowing, we expect the public debt burden to remain sustainable overall.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Country Risk Summary
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Weaker Cocoa Production To Inhibit Otherwise Strong Economy
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
External Trade And Investment Outlook
Côte D'Ivoire's Current Account Deficit To Be Sustained By Extensive Foreign Investment
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS EXPORTS IN 2017
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS IMPORTS IN 2017
Monetary Policy
BCEAO To Begin Gradual Monetary Tightening In 2019
Monetary Policy Framework
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
Fiscal Consolidation To Press Ahead In Côte D'Ivoire, But Debt Risks Rising
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
10-Year Forecast
The Ivorian Economy To 2028
A Bright Decade Ahead, But Fragilities To Persist
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Local Elections In Côte D'Ivoire Signal Policy Continuity But Greater Risk Of Unrest
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Long-Term Political Outlook
Post-Conflict Challenges To Linger
Operational Risk
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
Conflict Risk
TABLE: MAIN ACTIVE TERRORIST GROUPS
TABLE: POLITICAL VIOLENCE RISK
TABLE: MAJOR CONFLICT FLASHPOINTS
TABLE: BUSINESS RESPONSE TO CONFLICT RISK
Transport Network
TABLE: ROAD RISKS
TABLE: RAIL RISKS
TABLE: PORTS AND INLAND WATERWAY RISKS
TABLE: AIR TRANSPORT RISKS
Global Macro Outlook
Volatility Feeding Into Slower Growth
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: CÔTE D'IVOIRE – MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS

Download our eBook: How to Succeed Using Market Research

Learn how to effectively navigate the market research process to help guide your organization on the journey to success.

Download eBook

Share this report