Cote d'Ivoire Country Risk Report Q1 2020

Cote d'Ivoire Country Risk Report Q1 2020

At Fitch Solutions we expect that rising cocoa production and robust activity in the construction sector will help support strong economic growth in 2019 and 2020. Construction growth and high consumer demand will also act as tailwinds for economic expansion over the long term.

We believe that there is likely to be an uptick in political and social instability in the run-up to, and aftermath of, the upcoming general election in Côte d'Ivoire. Though the election result is difficult to predict at this time, it seems likely that the outcome will be peaceful, given the likelihood of agreements being struck between rival political candidates.

We expect that the Ivorian current account deficit will narrow slightly on higher cocoa export revenue and declining oil prices, reducing the cost of a key import. Deficits will remain, however, driven by high demand for capital goods imports and increased external debt servicing costs.

We believe that Côte d'Ivoire will see its budget deficit narrow in 2019 and beyond, driven by improved revenue collection measures.

Key Risks

Mutinies in Côte d'Ivoire highlight substantial risks to the country's medium-term outlook. The downside risk of renewed civil war started by tensions surround-ing elections in 2020 could derail the country's substantial economic and political progress since 2011.