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Cote d'Ivoire Country Risk Report Q1 2020

Cote d'Ivoire Country Risk Report Q1 2020

At Fitch Solutions we expect that rising cocoa production and robust activity in the construction sector will help support strong economic growth in 2019 and 2020. Construction growth and high consumer demand will also act as tailwinds for economic expansion over the long term.

We believe that there is likely to be an uptick in political and social instability in the run-up to, and aftermath of, the upcoming general election in Côte d'Ivoire. Though the election result is difficult to predict at this time, it seems likely that the outcome will be peaceful, given the likelihood of agreements being struck between rival political candidates.

We expect that the Ivorian current account deficit will narrow slightly on higher cocoa export revenue and declining oil prices, reducing the cost of a key import. Deficits will remain, however, driven by high demand for capital goods imports and increased external debt servicing costs.

We believe that Côte d'Ivoire will see its budget deficit narrow in 2019 and beyond, driven by improved revenue collection measures.

Key Risks

Mutinies in Côte d'Ivoire highlight substantial risks to the country's medium-term outlook. The downside risk of renewed civil war started by tensions surround-ing elections in 2020 could derail the country's substantial economic and political progress since 2011.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Country Risk Summary
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Growth To Accelerate In Côte D'Ivoire
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
External Trade And Investment Outlook
Cheaper Oil Imports To Improve External Accounts In Côte D'Ivoire
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS EXPORTS IN 2018
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS IMPORTS IN 2018
Monetary Policy
BCEAO To Keep Policy Rate Unchanged In 2019 And 2020
Monetary Policy Framework
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
Fiscal Consolidation To Continue Slowly In Côte D'Ivoire
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings’ Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings’ analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.Côte d'Ivoire Country Risk Q1 2020Contents10-Year Forecast
The Ivorian Economy To 2028
A Bright Decade Ahead, But Fragilities To Persist
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Growing Risk Of Instability Around Ivorian Election
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Long-Term Political Outlook
Post-Conflict Challenges To Linger
Operational Risk
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
Economic Openness
TABLE: FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS
TABLE:TARIFF AND NON-TARIFF TRADE BARRIERS
TABLE: FREE TRADE ZONES AND INVESTMENT INCENTIVES
TABLE: BARRIERS TO FDI
Utilities Network
TABLE: ELECTRICITY RISKS
TABLE: FUEL RISKS
TABLE: TELECOMMUNICATIONS RISKS
TABLE: WATER RISKS
Global Macro Outlook
Downside Revisions To Stabilise Somewhat, But Policy Risks Remain
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2018-2023)
TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: CÔTE D'IVOIRE – MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS

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