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Cote d'Ivoire Country Risk Report 20 2018

Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Economic Risk Index
Economic Growth Outlook
Growth To Decelerate On Weaker Exports
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
External Trade And Investment Outlook
Little Threat To External Stability From Wider Current Account Deficit
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS EXPORTS IN 2016
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS IMPORTS IN 2016
Monetary Policy
BCEAO To Hold Rates On Balanced Risks
Monetary Policy Framework
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
Fiscal Outlook Sustainable Despite Wider Deficit
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
The Ivorian Economy To 2027
A Bright Decade Ahead, But Fragilities To Persist
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Political Risk Index
Domestic Politics
New Ivorien Senate To Strengthen Presidential Power
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Long-Term Political Outlook
Post-Conflict Challenges To Linger
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
Operational Risk
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
Business Crime
TABLE: BUSINESS RESPONSE TO BUSINESS CRIME RISK
Education
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
Trade Tensions Take Centre Stage
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: CÔTE D'IVOIRE – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS

Cote d'Ivoire Country Risk Report 20 2018

Côte d'Ivoire will continue to see relatively robust economic growth in the coming quarters, driven by the construction, transport and mining sectors. However, weak cocoa prices will add headwinds to the agricultural sector, leading to a modest deceleration in headline growth relative to recent years.

Relations among high-level politicians in Côte d'Ivoire's ruling RHDP coalition are likely to become increasingly fractious in the coming quarters, as the ruling coalition increasingly focuses on finding a successor to current president, Alassane Ouattara, ahead of the 2020 elections. Weaker cohesion will likely see policy formation slow in the coming years, and the risk of army mutinies will continue. Côte d'Ivoire's current account deficit will widen in 2018 on the back of low cocoa prices and capital imports. However, we do not expect this to act as a significant threat to the country's external position, given robust inward investment.

Côte d'Ivoire's budget deficit will remain wide over the coming quarters due to weak cocoa revenues, after reaching a nadir in 2017. While this will lead to an increase in borrowing, we expect the public debt burden to remain sustainable overall.


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