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Congo-Brazzaville and Gabon Country Risk Report Q1 2019

Congo-Brazzaville and Gabon Country Risk Report Q1 2019

Rising oil prices will support economic activity in Congo-Brazzaville through exports and consumption, while investment into non-oil sector activity will bolster prospects for diversification over the medium-term

Corruption investigations and poor governance will undermine Congo-Brazzaville's efforts to secure multilateral financial support The perception of corruption touching the highest levels of government will exacerbate reputational risks to operating in the country and will thus disincentivise investment

However, a lack of progress on debt renegotiation and an anticipated contraction in oil production will limit economic growth beyond 2019

Security risks will remain moderate over the coming quarters, although social stability will remain volatile A ceasefire reached with an insurgent group in the southern region of Pool in December 2017 reduces security threats that seriously impeded commerce

However, the government's fiscal crisis will drive public unrest and likely continue to erode President Denis Sassou-Nguesso's support from the political elite


Brief Methodology
Congo-Brazzaville – Executive Summary
Core Views
Congo-Brazzaville – Country Risk Summary
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Congo-Brazzaville Growth Likely To Slow Beyond 2019
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
10-Year Forecast
The Congo Economy To 2027
Structural Weaknesses To Continue Amid Oil Dependence
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Corruption Perceptions Weaken Congo-Brazzaville's Appeal To Investors
THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings’ Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings’ analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.Congo-Brazzaville And Gabon Country Risk Q1 2019ContentsGabon – Executive Summary
Core Views
Gabon – Country Risk Summary
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Rising Oil Prices & Reforms Support Gabon's Outlook
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
10-Year Forecast
The Gabonese Economy To 2027
Government's Head Start In Diversification Drive Will Yield Long-Term Results
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Gabon's Legislative Elections Strengthen Bongo's Hand
Global Macro Outlook
Inflation And Policy Risks Rising
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, % Y-O-Y
Index Tables
TABLE: CONGO-BRAZZAVILLE – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
TABLE: GABON – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS

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