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Congo-Brazzaville and Gabon Country Risk Report Q4 2018

Congo-Brazzaville and Gabon Country Risk Report Q4 2018

Congo-Brazzaville will exit a recession over the coming quarters, led by rising oil production.

Nonetheless, the recovery will be weak, as the government's drastic spending cuts in the face of a debt crisis will undermine non-oil sector activity.

While debt renegotiations and structural reforms offer upside potential, medium-term growth will be poor due to a lack of upstream investment and a poor business environment.

Security risks will moderate in Congo-Brazzaville over the coming quarters, although social stability will remain volatile. A ceasefire reached with an insurgent group in the southern region of Pool in December 2017 reduces security threats that seriously impeded commerce.

However, the government's fiscal crisis will drive public unrest and likely continue to erode President Denis Sassou-Nguesso's support from the political elite.

The probability of snap elections is rising, but the repression of political opponents and the potential for Sassou-Nguesso's son to attempt to succeed him raise risks that early elections could spark new rounds of unrest.


Brief Methodology
Congo-Brazzaville – Executive Summary
Core Views
Congo-Brazzaville – Country Risk Summary
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Congo-Brazzaville's Fiscal Crisis Will Limit Growth
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
10-Year Forecast
The Congo Economy To 2027
Structural Weaknesses To Continue Amid Oil Dependence
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Unrest Likely To Continue In Congo-Brazzaville
Congo-Brazzaville And Gabon Country Risk Q4 2018ContentsGabon – Executive Summary
Core Views
Gabon – Country Risk Summary
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Public Sector Cuts Will Weaken Gabon's Growth
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
10-Year Forecast
The Gabonese Economy To 2027
Government's Head Start In Diversification Drive Will Yield Long-Term Results
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Gabon's Public Sector Cuts Will Undermine Bongo
Global Macro Outlook
Fewer Negative Surprises, But Trade Risks Rising
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: CONGO-BRAZZAVILLE – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
TABLE: GABON – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS

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