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Congo-Brazzaville, Congo, Dem. Rep. and Burundi Telecommunications Report Q2 2016

Congo-Brazzaville, Congo, Dem. Rep. and Burundi Telecommunications Report Q2 2016

The Democratic Republic of the Congo's mobile market continues to show excellent growth prospects andwe expect this trend to be ongoing throughout our forecast period. Strong mobile subscriber uptake is partlydue to an increase in competition, which has led to aggressive network development and service pricingstrategies. BMI believes that the recent contraction in the size of the Congolese mobile customer base waslargely due to inactive subscription discounting as the losses primarily came from the prepaid segment.

However, we believe that limited subscriber uptake in rural areas means that subscriptions growth is likelyto remain strong for the duration of our forecast period to 2020. Burundi's mobile market is viewed as oneof the most competitive in the region, with four active mobile operators serving a population of around10mn. Despite this, low income levels, low urbanisation rates and limited funds for network expansion intounderserved areas are among the major factors for the slow growth of the country's mobile sector.

Latest Updates & Industry Developments

We estimate that the Republic of the Congo's mobile market had 4.489mn customers by the end of 2015.This was equivalent to a penetration rate of 97.16%, down from 102% at the end of 2014. We nowpredict that the number of mobile subscriptions will reach 4.6mn at the end of 2020, a penetration rate of87.5%. We expect the number of 3G subscriptions in Congo-Brazzaville to reach 1.84mn in 2020,equivalent to 39.9% of the total mobile subscriber base.

The DRC's mobile penetration rate moved past the 61% mark at the end of 2015, based on a total of47.2mn mobile subscribers. We now expect it to reach 80.7% in 2020, based on a subscriber base of72.8mn mobile customers. We estimate there were around 3.47mn 3G subscriptions by the end of 2015.

Our forecast anticipates this number to rise to 18.2mn by 2020, equivalent to 25% of the mobilesubscriber base.

We now estimate that Burundi's mobile market grew by just over 80% y-o-y in 2015 to reach5.575mn subscriptions. As a result of the stronger growth trend witnessed in 9M15 we have once againrevised our mobile subscriber forecast for Burundi, now predicting that subscriptions will reach10.58mn in 2020.


BMI Industry View
Latest Updates & Industry Developments
SWOT
CongoBrazzaville Telecoms SWOT
DRC Telecoms SWOT
Burundi Telecoms SWOT
Industry Forecast
CongoBrazzaville Industry Forecast
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Telecoms Sector
Historical Data & Forecasts (CongoBrazzaville 20132020)
DRC Industry Forecast
Table: Telecoms Sector
Historical Data & Forecasts (DRC 20132020)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Burundi Industry Forecast
Table: Telecoms Sector
Historical Data & Forecasts (Burundi 20132020)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
SubSaharan Africa Risk/Reward Index
Table: Regional RRI Comparison, Q216
Table: Sub
Saharan Africa Risk/Reward Index, Q2 2016
CongoBrazzaville Industry Risk Reward Index
DRC Industry Risk Reward Index
Burundi Industry Risk Reward Index
Market Overview
CongoBrazzaville Market Overview
Market Drivers And Trends
Mobile
Wireline Voice And Broadband
DRC Market Overview
Market Drivers And Trends
Mobile
Wireline Voice And Broadband
Burundi Market Overview
Market Drivers And Trends
Mobile
Wireline Voice And Broadband
PayTV/Convergence
Regulatory Development
Table: Regulatory Environment
Competitive Landscape
Table: Key Players
Table: Congo
Brazzaville Mobile Market Overview 20132015
Table: Airtel Congo
Table: MTN Congo
Table: Azur Congo
Table: DRC Mobile Market Overview 2013
2015
Table: Vodacom DRC
Table: Airtel Congo
Table: Orange DRC
Table: Tigo DRC
Table: Burundi Mobile Market Overview 2013
2015
Company Profile
MTN
Table: MTN Indicators, 2013
2015
Airtel Africa
Orange
Table: Orange's Proportional Subscriptions
Demographic Forecast
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Congo
Brazzaville 19902025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Congo
Brazzaville 19902025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Congo
Brazzaville 19902025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Congo
Brazzaville 19902025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Congo
Brazzaville 19902025)
Demographic Forecast
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Congo (DRC) 1990
2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Congo (DRC) 1990
2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Congo (DRC) 1990
2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Congo (DRC) 1990
2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Congo (DRC) 1990
2025)
Demographic Forecast
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Burundi 1990
2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Burundi 1990
2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Burundi 1990
2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Burundi 1990
2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Burundi 1990
2025)
Glossary
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sources
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators

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