Colombia Retail Report Q3 2015

Colombia Retail Report Q3 2015

BMI View: With the fourth largest economy in Latin America, measured by GDP, Colombia's retail sectorpresents many opportunities for international and domestic retailers, as well as investors. Years ofeconomically sound policy have lowered barriers to entry for international firms, and sustained economicgrowth has brought lower unemployment rates and higher levels of affluence for a significant portion of thepopulation. However, lingering poverty levels, a deficient physical and transportation infrastructure, andthe slow rate of non-cash payment integration into the economy continue to remain a hindrance toachieving full economic growth potential. Nevertheless, significant opportunities remain. In particular, thecontinuing fall of the informal sector's market share and the continuing rise of e-commerce and onlineretail should provide meaningful incentive for further investment and expansion.

Overall, the economy looks set to expand, with year-on-year (y-o-y) real GDP growth forecast at 3.1% and3.5% in 2015 and 2016 respectively. However, due to recent currency fluctuations, BMI projects that totalhousehold income and total household spending, in USD terms, as well as household spending across allsub-sectors of the retail market we monitor, will see a significant contraction y-o-y in 2015. Nevertheless,this is expected be a short-term trend, as we predict a return to positive growth of household income andspending in 2016. Furthermore, we expect that in 2016, the number of households in the middle classbracket will increase by over 7%. Among other things, this should provide increased (as a % of totalspending) non-essentials spending, on sectors such as recreation & culture, which is expected to see thehighest growth rates over our forecast period, and decreased (as a % of total spending) spending onessential sectors, such as food & non-alcoholic drinks, which is expected to see the lowest growth ratesover our forecast period.

BMI Industry View
Retail SWOT
Industry Forecast
Headline Retail Forecast
Table: Total Household Spending (Colombia 2012-2019)
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (Colombia 2012-2019)
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % of GDP (Colombia 2012-2019)
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (Colombia 2012-2019)
Retail Sector Forecast
Food & Drink
Table: Food, Drink & Tobacco Spending (Colombia 2012-2019)
Clothing & Footwear
Table: Clothing & Footwear Spending (Colombia 2012-2019)
Household Goods
Table: Household Goods Spending (Colombia 2012-2019)
Personal Care & Effects
Table: Personal Care Spending (Colombia 2012-2019)
Household Income and Numbers Forecast
Table: Household Income Data (Colombia 2012-2019)
Table: Labour Market Data (Colombia 2012-2019)
Demographic Forecast
Table: Total Population (Colombia 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Babies (Colombia 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Young Children (Colombia 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Children (Colombia 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children (Colombia 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Young People (Colombia 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Older Teenagers (Colombia 2012-2019)
Table: Population: 21yrs + (Colombia 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Young Adults (Colombia 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Middle Aged (Colombia 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Urban (Colombia 2012-2019)
Macroeconomic Forecasts
Economic Analysis
Table: BMI And Bloomberg Consensus Forecasts* WTI And Brent, Front Month - USD/bbl
Table: GDP Contribution To Growth (Colombia 2012-2020)
Industry Risk Reward Index
Latin America Risk/Reward Index
Table: Latin America Retail Risk/Reward Index
Colombia Risk/Reward Index
Market Overview
Competitive Landscape
Convenience Stores
Quick-Service Restaurants (QSRs)
Department Stores
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators

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