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Colombia Freight Transport Report 2016

Colombia Freight Transport Report 2016

BMI View: Despite a subdued outlook for Colombia's economy, we expect steady increases in agriculturaloutput will ensure tepid growth in freight volumes in the coming years. We caution that a more robustexpansion will be prevented by a slowdown in the consumer sector, weak global commodities and alacklustre external picture. As a result, we expect the road and rail will display the largest gains vis-à-visair freight.

The Colombian economy is set for a sharp slowdown in the coming quarters, as the country struggles in theface of weaker trade dynamics and slowing household spending. Indeed, after real GDP growth of 4.6% in2014, we forecast expansions of just 2.9% and 3.4% in 2015 and 2016 respectively. Moreover, weexpect real GDP growth will remain weak over the coming five years, averaging 3.4% compared to 4.8% inthe past half decade, as the impact of weaker oil prices and falling crude production continue to temper thecountry's economic outlook. This will have a notable impact on the consumer sector, as lower employmentprospects will dent disposable income. In turn, demand for road and air freight will be impacted.


BMI Industry View
SWOT
Freight Transport
Political
Economic
Operational Risk
Industry Forecast
Trade Forecast
Table: Trade Overview (Colombia 2013-2020)
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Colombia 2013-2020)
Road Freight Forecast
Table: Road Freight (Colombia 2012-2019)
Rail Freight Forecast
Table: Rail Freight (Colombia 2012-2019)
Air Freight Forecast
Table: Air Freight (Colombia 2012-2019)
Market Overview
Company Profile
Cerrejón (Logistics)
Avianca (Cargo)
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Long-Term Politics
Table: Political Overview
Oil Price Outlook
Europe - Brent On Board For A Bumpy Ride
Macroeconomic Forecasts
Economic Analysis
Table: Colombia - Key Economic Indicators
Table: Colombia - Private Consumption Forecasts
Table: Colombia - Government Consumption Forecasts
Table: Colombia - Fixed Investment Forecasts
Table: Colombia - Net Exports Forecasts
Demographic Forecast
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Colombia 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Colombia 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Colombia 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Colombia 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Colombia 1990-2025)
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sector-Specific Methodology
Sources

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