Colombia Defence & Security 2019
Key View :
Colombian military expenditure will fall in 2019. This will happen as a result of lower oil prices, which will have animpact on government spending. We forecast defence expenditure to reach USD10.4bn in 2019. Defence spending willincrease over the medium-to-long term, reflecting persistent security threats posed by tensions with Venezuela (as well as largeinflows of refugees, given the collapse of the Venezuelan economy) and the ongoing fight against drug trafficking and relatedcrime. We expect defence expenditure to remain above 3.0% of GDP over the coming decade. Colombia will maintain a largedefence trade deficit for the foreseeable future, given the highly underdeveloped nature of its local defence sector. The governmentis seeking to improve this trade balance through the development of the local defence sector; however, efforts are somewhatconstrained by a limited defence budget.
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