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Colombia Country Risk Report 20 2018

Colombia Country Risk Report 20 2018

Colombia will see an uptick in real GDP growth in 2018 due to stronger private consumption, rising oil prices and increased investment.

We see little political risk stemming from the country’s upcoming presidential election, as the next government is likely to support investor-friendly economic policies.

Policymaking will be more contentious in the coming quarters after legislative elections saw the formation of a more fragmented con-gress, with centre-right parties winning at the expense of centrist ones. In the presidential contest, former Bogotá mayor Gustavo Petro and Senator Iván Duque appear to be favourites to advance to the presidential run-off, though the race is too early to call.

The Banco de la República (BanRep) will continue its accommoda-tive​monetary​policy​in​2018,​spurred​by​a​slowdown​in​inflation​and​tepid economic growth. A more streamlined schedule will improve the predictability of its rate decisions, bolstering the bank’s credibility.

​ Colombia’s​current​account​deficit​will​narrow​in​2018​as​rising​oil​prices​underpin​export​growth.​Foreign​investment​inflows​will​largely​cover the resulting shortfall, with sizeable international reserves providing further support for the external account.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Major Forecast Changes
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Economic Risk Index
Economic Growth Outlook
Growth To Trend Upwards In 2018
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
External Trade And Investment Outlook
Rising Oil Prices Will Support Current Account
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS EXPORTS
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS IMPORTS
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
Monetary Policy
BanRep To Extend Rate Cuts In 2018
Monetary Policy Framework
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
Fiscal Deficits Shrinking, But Persistent
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
Currency Forecast
COP: Oil Prices Support Upward Revisions
TABLE: CURRENCY FORECAST
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
The Colombian Economy To 2027
Prudent Economic Reform To Ensure Strong Growth
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Political Risk Index
Domestic Politics
Centre-Right Parties Gain In Legislative Elections
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
TABLE: TIMELINE FOR 2018 COLOMBIAN ELECTION CYCLE
Long-Term Political Outlook
Challenges And Opportunities Ahead
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
Operational Risk
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
Business Crime
TABLE: MAIN ACTIVE ORGANISED CRIMINAL GROUPS
TABLE: BUSINESS RESPONSE TO WHITE COLLAR CRIME AND ORGANISED CRIME RISKS
Education
TABLE: COLOMBIA AND OECD AVERAGE PISA STUDENT PERFORMANCE SCORES
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
Trade Tensions Take Centre Stage
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: COLOMBIA – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS

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