BMI View: Conditions in the Colombian consumer electronics market are set to deliver strong growththroughout our five-year forecast period, as improved labour market dynamics and stronger privateconsumption will lead to rapid uptake of smartphones and tablets. Similarly rising credit growth to bolsterprivate consumption levels will benefit consumer electronics products at the higher end of the market. Thiswill allow vendors to tap into the relatively low penetration rates in key device categories such as PCs,smartphones and flat-panel TVs. One potential risk we highlight is the our expectation that oil revenues areset to head lower in the coming years, which will force the government into a decision between cuttingspending or relaxing its fiscal consolidation targets. The Consumer Electronics and IT markets havebenefitted greatly from social spending programs for tablet distribution and universal internet access, and acurtailed government budget would put pressure on these projects.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Computer Hardware Sales: USD1.49bn in 2014 to USD1.39bn in 2015; -7.0% in US dollar terms.Depreciation against the US dollar will squeeze market value in 2015, but the medium term outlook isbrighter, with both tablets and notebooks expected to drive market growth.
AV Sales: USD1.87bn in 2014 to USD1.81bn in 2015; -3.5% in US dollar terms. TV set upgrades werebrought forward to 2014 by the FIFA World Cup, meaning slower growth in 2015, a trend exacerbated byexchange rate movements.
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