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Colombia Agribusiness Report Q2 2016

Colombia Agribusiness Report Q2 2016

BMI View: Colombia's agribusiness sector is being held back by a number of deep structural challenges -including the lingering consequences of internal armed conflict, structural inefficiencies, lowcompetitiveness and poor policy choices. As a result, area cultivated and yields have stagnated over thepast decade. But after several decades of disappointing growth in Colombia's agribusiness sector, theoutlook for production and exports is brightening. The efforts made to resolve the conflict, coupled with thepotential for upcoming agricultural reforms, have paved the way for the revival of Colombia's agribusiness.

The coffee, fruits, sugar, palm oil and horticulture sectors offer the best opportunities. Colombianagriculture enjoys a large diversity thanks to abundant natural resources and diverse climates andtopography. Although FTAs may undermine the livestock and dairy sectors, they also provide Colombiawith large export markets. The US and EU, which are the main markets for Colombian agriculturalproducts, will see their imports grow in the coming years with the decrease in tariffs.

Key Forecasts

Corn consumption growth to 2020: 18.4% to 7.1mn tonnes. Corn consumption will expand at a fasterpace than production over the medium term, boosted by the growth in the livestock sector, especially inthe poultry segment. The domestic corn deficit will reach 4.75mn tonnes by 2018/19, compared with3.95mn tonnes in 2013/14.

Poultry production growth to 2019/20: 26.4% to 1.8mn tonnes. Poultry will record the strongestgrowth within the livestock sector over the coming five years, supported by a growing domestic demandfor meat products at affordable prices.

Coffee production growth to 2019/20: 11.3% to 14.8mn bags. Programmes to replace agingplantations and improve resistance to disease are starting to bear fruit and will support yields and lead toapick up in planted area in the coming years. The various FTAs signed over recent years with the US,Canada and the EU will provide Colombia with large export markets.

BMI Industry View
Industry Forecast
Grains Outlook
Table: Colombia - Grains Production And Consumption Outlook
Table: Colombia - Risks To Grains Outlook
Table: Colombia - Select Grains Production & Consumption, 2014-2020
Sugar Outlook
Table: Colombia - Sugar Production And Consumption Outlook
Table: Colombia - Risks To Sugar Outlook
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Colombia 2014-2020)
Coffee Outlook
Table: Colombia - Coffee Production And Consumption Outlook
Table: Colombia - Risks To Coffee Outlook
Table: Coffee Production & Consumption (Colombia 2014-2020)
Cocoa Outlook
Table: Colombia - Cocoa Production And Consumption Outlook
Table: Colombia - Risks To Cocoa Outlook
Table: Cocoa Production & Consumption (Colombia 2014-2020)
Dairy Outlook
Table: Colombia - Dairy Production And Consumption Outlook
Table: Colombia - Risks To Dairy Outlook
Table: Dairy Production & Consumption (Colombia 2014-2020)
Livestock Outlook
Table: Colombia - Livestock Production And Consumption Outlook
Table: Colombia - Risks To Livestock Outlook
Table: Livestock Production & Consumption (Colombia 2014-2020)
Commodities Price Analysis
Global - Global Commodities Strategy
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts
Featured Analysis
Promising Potential Should Reforms Be Implemented
Table: Latin America - Country Risk And Operational Risks Indices, 2014
Table: Production Balance, Colombia (2010-2019)
Upstream Analysis
Americas Machinery Outlook
Table: Select Companies - Sales Forecasts By Region (Company-based estimates)
Americas GM Outlook
Americas Fertiliser Outlook
Downstream Analysis
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Food Sales (Colombia 2013-2020)
Regional Overview
Table: TPP - Main Winners And Losers For Agriculture
Competitive Landscape
Table: Key Agribusiness Players
Demographic Forecast
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Colombia 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Colombia 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Colombia 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Colombia 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Colombia 1990-2025)
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sector-Specific Methodology

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