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China Shipping Report Q1 2016

China Shipping Report Q1 2016

BMI View: In 2016, China's shipping sector is poised to enjoy a healthy year and the country's ports oncemore dominate the global top 10, a scenario which is not set to change any time soon. The outperformer iny-o-y tonnage terms is set to be one of China's smaller ports, the port of Basuo with annual gains of 8.3%,while the country's two largest ports at Shanghai and Shenzen are pencilled in to register steady box andtonnage growth over the next 12 months. Growth is predicated on the fact that China will remain one of theworld's most attractive consumer stories over the next five-to-ten years, underpinned by several structuraldynamics including a rebalancing of the economy towards private consumption, demographic trends,greater urbanisation rates, rising GDP per capita and the increase of household leverage.

We forecast that China's consumer story will remain a very bright spot over the coming years, despite thestructural slowdown in the economy and we forecast that real private consumption will grow by an averageof 8.0% per year over the next ten years. This will see private consumption rise as a share of GDP to 44.3%,from the current low level of 36.1% and is very much in line with the government's efforts to rebalance theeconomy away from investment and towards consumption. Over our medium-term forecast period, we donot envisage any major fluctuations in y-o-y growth at China's main ports.


BMI Industry View
China - Q1 2016
SWOT
Shipping
Political
Economy
Operational Risk
Industry Forecast
Port Of Shanghai Throughput
Port Of Shenzhen Throughput
Table: Major Ports Data (China 2013-2019)
Table: Trade Overview (China 2012-2019)
Table: Key Trade Indicators (China 2012-2019)
Table: Main Import Partners, 2006-2013 (USDmn)
Table: Main Export Destinations, 2006-2013 (USDmn)
Market Overview
China - Q415
Company Profile
Sinotrans
Shipping - Global Industry View
Bright Spot For Shipping: Low Bunker Prices
Table: BMI Bunker Fuel (IFO180 & MGO) Price Forecast
Short-Term Outlook (three-to-six months)
Long-Term Outlook
Risks To Outlook
Global Company Strategy
Maersk Line
Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC)
CMA CGM
Evergreen Line
COSCO Container Lines Company (COSCON)
Macroeconomic Forecast
Economic Analysis
Table: Economic Activity (China 2010-2019)
Demographic Forecast
Table: Population Headline Indicators (China 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (China 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (China 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (China 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (China 1990-2025)

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