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China Power Report Q2 2016

BMI Industry View
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (China 2015-2021)
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
SWOT
Industry Forecast
China Snapshot
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (China 2015-2019)
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (China 2020-2025)
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
China Power Forecast Scenario
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
Thermal Generation And Thermal Generating Capacity
Nuclear Generation And Nuclear Generating Capacity
Hydropower Generation and Hydropower Generating Capacity
Renewables Generation And Renewables Generating Capacity
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (China 2014-2019)
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (China 2020-2025)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (China 2014-2019)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (China 2020-2025)
Electricity Consumption
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (China 2014-2019)
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (China 2020-2025)
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (China 2014-2019)
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (China 2020-2025)
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (China 2014-2019)
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (China 2020-2025)
Industry Risk/Reward Index
Asia Power Risk/Reward Index
Table: Asia Power Risk/Reward Index (Scores Out Of 100)
China Power Risk/Reward Index
Rewards
Risks
Market Overview
Key Policies And Market Structure
Regulation And Competition
Sustainable Energy Policies
Pricing
China Power Projects Database
Table: China - Top 10 Power Projects By Capacity
Competitive Landscape
Huaneng Power International
China Huaneng Group
China Datang Corporation
China Huadian Corporation
China Guodian Corporation
China Power Investment Corporation
China Southern Power Grid
State Grid Corporation
Company Profile
Huaneng Power International
Regional Overview
Asia Power Regional Overview
Table: China Power Snapshot
Glossary
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Methodology
Methodology And Sources
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sources
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators

China Power Report Q2 2016

BMI View: The ongoing economic slowdown in China and the government's continued efforts to tackle coal consumption are having a significant impact on China's power sector and we have adjusted our forecasts accordingly. We believe coal-fired power generation will undergo a decline over 2016 and 2017, and then register only slight annual increases thereafter. The outlook for power consumption is similarly muted, with annual average growth rates of 3% between 2016 and 2025, as China's economy shifts away from powerintensive manufacturing.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

In terms of fuel mix, conventional thermal sources play a key role and are expected to continue to dominate electricity generation as many projects under construction or planned will use coal or gas, and as Chinese efforts in prospecting and exploiting conventional oil and gas resources are set to increase. While other sources of power will play increasingly important roles, China will remain reliant on coal for its power generation over the next decade.

China's power mix continues to evolve, in line with the slowdown in China's economy - which is curbing power consumption - and the ongoing efforts by the Chinese government to tackle pollution, which is resulting in reduced coal consumption. This, coupled with the gain in prominence of cleaner fuels, such as gas, nuclear power and renewable energy, is having a significant impact on China's power sector. Over our forecast period, we expect coal-fired power generation to register just a 2% increase from 2015 to 2025, while other fuels will post much higher growth levels - albeit from a lower base. Natural gas and nuclear power will both increase by over 300% and non-hydro renewables will more than double. Oil power will decline as it is gradually phased out of the power mix over the next decade. • The Chinese government's mandate and environmental regulations will drive consolidation in the country's coal industry over the coming years, 80% of which were loss-making in 2015. On January 21 2016, China announced the allocation of 30bn Chinese Yuan (USD4.56bn) in funds over the next three years to support the closure of 4,300 small and inefficient coal mines to reduce annual production capacity by 700mn tonnes (mnt). This builds forth on the government's plan to redeploy about 1mn workers affected in the consolidation efforts. The newly announced measures, aimed to shrink oversupply and environmental pollution, follows China's decision last month to halt the approval of new coal mines until at least 2019.


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