China Petrochemicals Report Q4 2017

China Petrochemicals Report Q4 2017

BMI View:

The petrochemicals industry has proven resilient in the face of a managed slowdown, implemented to avert a 'boom and bust' scenario. However, project delays, lower consumption growth and growing doubts over the economic viability of coal- and methanol-based petrochemicals have reduced the expected rate of petrochemicals growth over coming years. Margins are under pressure with naphtha remaining the most competitively priced feedstock, while prices in some polymer segments are softening due to regional oversupply. More generally, the Chinese economy remains mired in a medium-term slowdown as structural weaknesses are yet to be fully addressed. These include the dominance of inefficient state-owned enterprises, overcapacity in the industrial sector, including petrochemicals and their end markets and rising corporate leverage. They have not improved significantly and, in the case of the latter, it has deteriorated.

Chinese ethylene output shrank 2.3% y-o-y to 10.4mn tonnes in 7M17, while primary plastic grew 7.6% to 50.0mn tonnes and plastic products rose 5.6% to 45.9mn tonnes. Low naphtha prices are continuing to undermine growth in coal-based production, while low refinery capacity utilisation rates reduce the availability of naphtha, which will be the main feedstock used for the new cracker production capacity that is fundamental to the petrochemicals value chain. With cracker capacity continuing to rise, this raises questions about the viability of many high-cost coal-to-olefins (CTO) plants that are the basis of China's petrochemicals expansion plans.

BMI Industry View
Industry Forecast
Table: China's Petrochemicals Sector, '000 tpa (2014-2021)
Macroeconomic Forecasts
Economic Analysis
Table: Adjusting Interest Rates Higher
Industry Risk/Reward Index
Asia Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index
Table: Asia Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index Ranking
Market Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
Table: Conventional Cracker Projects
Upstream And Refining
Table: Refineries In China With Over 200,000b/d Capacity
Company Profile
China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec)
Table: PetroChina Financial Results (CNYmn)
Regional Overview
Asia Overview
Global Industry Overview
13th Five-Year Plan
13th Five-Year Plan: Key Points
Summary Of Contents
Chapter 1: Overview
Table: Targets
Chapter 2: Innovation To Drive Development
Chapter 3: Economic Institutions
Chapter 4: Modernisation Of The Agricultural Sector
Chapter 5: Industries
Chapter 6: Expand The Network Economy
Chapter 7: Build A Modern Infrastructure Network
Chapter 8: New-Type Urbanisation
Chapter 9: Coordination Of Regional Development
Chapter 10: Environmental Protection
Chapter 11: Continue Opening Up
Demographic Forecast
Table: Population Headline Indicators (China 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (China 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (China 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (China 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (China 1990-2025)
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators

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