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China Petrochemicals Report Q2 2016

China Petrochemicals Report Q2 2016

We expect China's petrochemicals industry to come under pressure from cooling Chinese economic growthover the coming years. Petrochemicals producers will struggle to survive in the face of falling profitmargins, sluggish demand and waning support from the local governments. In the present economicenvironment and with weak oil prices keeping naphtha costs down, the development of coal and methanolbased chemicals makes less economic sense.

In 2015, ethylene output grew 1.6% y-o-y to 17.1mn tonnes, while primary plastic output rose 10.5% to76.9mn tonnes and plastic products rose 1.0% to 75.6mn tonnes. By the end of the year, the rate ofproduction had recovered from a sharp decline in Q215 and was on a consistent upward trend. BMI expectslower capacity utilisation in the context of ethylene capacity growing at a faster rate than output anddemand. Coupled with low naphtha prices, there are doubts about the viability of planned coal-to-olefins/methanol-to-olefins (CTO/MTO) projects. The diversification of feedstock away from naphtha now makeslittle sense, while independents are continuing to fuel investment in the refining sector thereby providingopportunities for naphtha production growth.


BMI Industry View
SWOT
Political
Economy
Operational Risk
Industry Forecast
Demand
Production
Table: China's Petrochemicals Sector ('000 tpa, unless otherwise stated), 2012-2020
Macroeconomic Forecasts
Economic Analysis
Industry Risk/Reward Index
Asia Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index
Table: Asia Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index Ranking
Market Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
Trends: Economic Volatility And Safety Concerns
Cracker Project Timescale
Table: Conventional Cracker Projects, 2016-2020
Upstream And Refining
Table: Refineries In China With Over 200,000b/d Capacity
Unconventional Gas Development
Coal-Based Chemicals
Table: China MTO plant operating status round-up, January 2016
Sinopec
PetroChina
CNOOC
Aromatics And Derivatives
Company Profile
China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec)
PetroChina
Table: PetroChina Financial Results (CNYmn)
Regional Overview
Asia Overview
Global Industry Overview
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices
Table: Global Energy Price Forecasts (2014-2019)
Table: Global Energy Price Forecasts (2020-2025)
Demographic Forecast
Table: Population Headline Indicators (China 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (China 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (China 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (China 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (China 1990-2025)
Glossary
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators

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