China Petrochemicals Q1 2020
Heightened US-China tariffs will underpin slowing growth in both the US and China. Following a significant re-escalationin trade tensions between the US and China, we expect tariffs will remain elevated over the coming quarters. While there is someprospect for a deal to be reached in the near term, this will likely depend on market and political pressure on negotiators, and weexpect tariffs will persist even if a deal is struck. Slower manufacturing growth will have a negative impact on imports ofpetrochemicals products and, as a result, China will be more self-sufficient in petrochemicals. Trends in recent months appear topoint to growth in domestic production of ethylene and primary plastics. Chinese production of basic products is growing in linewith the move towards market self-sufficiency, even as manufactured plastic products are affected by the softening of exports.
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