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China Mining Report Q2 2016

China Mining Report Q2 2016

BMI View: China's mining sector will face ongoing challenges from low mineral prices over the comingyears. Government supported consolidation will support production growth, but, depleting reserves, fallingore grades and the relatively short life span of domestic mines will further drive outward Chineseinvestment.

Latest Updates & Structural Trends

While cooling Chinese economic growth will adversely impact mining operations, we expect the impactto vary across different mineral segments. Lead and copper mining production growth will decline lessstrongly than iron ore and lead, due to a more resilient price environment for these metals.

China's structural shortfall in domestic production combined with the government's desire for resourcesecurity will continue to spur overseas mining deals. Although China's reliance on imports will increasedue to the country's depleting reserves, falling ore grades and the relatively short life span of mines,outbound investment will face more caution, as Chinese projects are increasingly faced with rising costsand project delays. As a result, Chinese firms' 2015 mining merger and acquisition activity (M&A) inLatin America slowed to USD2.1bn, a 72.8% y-o-y decrease from 2014. Chinese mining M&A activityin the Middle East and Africa also fell significantly, by 46.0% y-o-y, to USD135mn in 2015. Chinesemetal investment in Sub Saharan Africa also dropped in 2015 to USD1.2bn, significantly lower thanUSD4.0bn in 2014 and USD8.4bn in 2013.


BMI Industry View
Table: China Mining Industry Value
Latest Updates & Structural Trends
SWOT
Industry Forecast
Bauxite: Growth To Cool, Dependency To Rise
Latest Developments
Table: Bauxite Production Forecast (China 2012-2020)
Structural Trends
Imports: Growth In Short Term And Long Term
Risks To Production Outlook
China - Coal: Regulations To Result In Contraction
Latest Developments
Table: Coal Production Forecasts
Structural Trends
Government To Push For Consolidation
Weak Margins To Subdue Growth
Table: China - Select Coal Mining Projects
Energy Production To Remain Coal Dominated
China - Copper: Low Price To Provide Headwinds To Domestic Production
Latest Developments
Table: Copper Production Forecast (China 2012-2020)
Structural Trends
Table: China - Select Copper Projects
Gold: Five Key Themes
Table: Gold Production Forecast (China 2012-2020)
Table: China - Overseas Gold Mining Deals
Iron Ore: Output To Decline, Imports Remain Strong
Latest Developments
Table: China Iron Ore Production Forecast
Structural Trends
Price Weakness To Hurt Miners
Small-Scale Miners To Come Under The Most Pressure
Strict Regulations To Increase Import Preference
Nickel: Weak Domestic Growth
Latest Developments
Table: Nickel Production Forecast (China 2012-2020)
Structural Trends
Further Consolidation
Table: China - Select Nickel Projects
Risks To Outlook
Tin: Yunnan Tin To Drive Growth
Latest Developments
Table: Tin Production Forecast (China 2012-2020)
Structural Trends
Risks To Outlook
Lead: Growth To Stagnate
Latest Developments
Table: Lead Production Forecast (China 2012-2020)
Structural Trends
Table: China - Select Lead Mining Projects
Risks To Outlook
Zinc: Mining Under Pressure
Latest Developments
Table: Zinc Production Forecast (China 2012-2020)
Structural Trends
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
China Risk Reward Index
Rewards
Industry Rewards
Country Rewards
Risks
Industry Risks
Country Risks
Asia - Risk/Reward Index
Table: Asia - Mining Risk/Reward Index
Regulatory Development
Trade And Investment Risk Analysis
Commodities Forecast
Commodities Outlook
Table: BMI Commodities Price Forecasts
Competitive Landscape
Majors Firms
Table: China - Key Financial Data For Select Listed Mining Companies
Company Profile
Jiangxi Copper
Table: Supply Chain Analysis
Table: Jiangxi Copper - Key Financial Data
Shandong Gold
Table: Supply Chain Analysis
China Shenhua Energy
Table: Shenhua Energy - Supply Chain Analysis
Aluminum Corporation of China (Chalco) - Q2 2016
Company Overview
Latest Financial Results
Table: Chalco - Key Financial Data
Regional Overview
Asia Mining: The Four Key Themes
Key Themes
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sources
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Weighting Of Indicators

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