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China Metals Report 2016

China Metals Report 2016

BMI View: China's metals industry will face headwinds from both low metal prices and Beijing's pledge toslash overcapacity in heavy industry, which will threaten the survival of many high-cost metal producers.

China will continue to drive the supply glut in both the global steel and aluminium market. This willtranslate into elevated exports from the country over the coming quarters.

Aluminium

We have revised down our average aluminium price forecast for 2016 to USD1,575/tonne. Althoughprices will bottom in Q415-Q216, production will outstrip consumption until 2018 and anchor prices. Inparticular, cheap Chinese exports will keep the market well supplied.

Chinese production has remained robust in 2015, driven by expansion in the North-West of the country.

Primary output grew by 15.2% in the first nine months of the year, according to Bloomberg. We expectthis growth to slow substantially in the coming quarters and forecast output to grow by 8.0% in 2016,


BMI Industry View
Table: China Mining Industry Value
Latest Developments & Structural Trends
SWOT
Metals SWOT
Industry Forecast
Aluminium: North-West To Sustain Industry Growth
Latest Developments
Table: Aluminium Production & Consumption (China 2011-2019)
Structural Trends
China - Steel: Production To Contract Until At Least 2019
Latest Developments
Table: China Steel Forecast
Table: Select Countries - Imposed Import Duties Against Chinese Steel
Regulatory Development
Commodities Forecast
Commodities Outlook
Table: BMI Commodities Price Forecasts
Competitive Landscape
Table: China - Steel Producers By Share Of Production (%), 2013
Table: China - Largest Listed Metal Producers
Company Profile
Baoshan Iron & Steel - Q116
Aluminum Corporation of China (Chalco) - Q1 2016
Company Overview
Latest Financial Results
Table: Supply Chain Analysis
Table: Chalco - Key Financial Data
Methodology
Cross Checks

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