China Freight Transport & Shipping Report Q2 2016
BMI View: We expect the Chinese economic slowdown to continue and the impact of net imports ofcommodities to intensify, affecting the freight transport sector with weaker than previously expectedcommodities imports. Iron ore imports will remain depressed on the back of a weaker steel production.
However, private consumption will continue to be robust, and exports will continue to decline albeit at aslower pace amid some signs of improving foreign demand supporting freight volumes. Road will continueto remain the most important freight mode, also be helped by consumer demand. We maintain a belowconsensusgrowth forecast for China, including a 6.3% real GDP expansion in 2016, slowing further to5.8% in 2017.
The slowdown in the Chinese economy will result in the GDP growth averaging less than6.0% over the nextdecade as opposed to the 10.1% average seen over the past decade. The growth rate is at the slowest annualrate in 25 years. However, its trade dynamics will remain strong on the back of a declining albeit robustexport sector and outperforming private consumption, which will boost freight volumes. The recent cut ininterest rates by the Chinese Central Bank has fuelled fears that the economy is about to slow further, with adecline in exports due to the high value of China's currency being the biggest factor. However, with moreeconomic stimulus in the pipeline, this could also be seen as a strategic step on the way to a strongerlooking Chinese economy.
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