China Consumer & Retail Q3 2018
We continue to hold a favourable outlook for Chinese consumer spending, with both high frequency and longer-termtrends pointing to another constructive year for this segment of the economy. Consumer confidence in China is hitting 20-yearhighs, backed by growth in household loans and subdued inflation. Further upside to our 7.5% forecast growth in consumerspending in 2018 comes from opportunities for leveraging up by consumers, with household debt to rise as a share of GDP over thecoming years. The strong pick-up in short-term household loans is set to continue, benefiting retailers across all sectors, while theexpansion in medium-to-long-term loans is likely to slow due to a softening housing market.
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