China Consumer & Retail Q2 2020
Our Country Risk team has reduced the forecast for China’s overall economic growth for China in 2020, from 5.9% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 5.6% y-o-y, due to the ongoing impact of Covid-19. As such, we have revised down our real household spendingoutlook for 2020 to 2.5% y-o-y, a slowdown on the 4.25% y-o-y increase recorded in 2019. We note that forecasts for spending onrestaurants and hotels, culture and recreation and transport are most exposed, with downward revisions now factored in; whileforecasts for health and food spending have been revised upward.
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