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China Consumer Electronics Report Q2 2016

BMI Industry View
Latest Updates & Industry Developments
SWOT
Industry Forecast
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview (China 2014
2020)
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Industry Risk/Reward Index
Table: CE RRI Breakdown By Region, Q216
Table: Asia CE Risk/Reward Index
Q216
Market Overview
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Computers
Table: PC Sales (China 2014
2020)
AV Devices
Table: AV Sales (China 2014
2020)
Mobile Handsets
Table: Mobile Communications (China 2014
2020)
Industry Trends And Developments
Competitive Landscape
International Companies
Table: Apple
Table: Foxconn (Hon Hai)
Local Companies
Table: Founder Technology Group
Table: TCL
Regulatory Development
Demographic Forecast
Table: Population Headline Indicators (China 1990
2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (China 1990
2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (China 1990
2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (China 1990
2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (China 1990
2025)
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
SectorSpecific Methodology
Sources
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
SectorSpecific Methodology
Table: Consumer Electronics Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators

China Consumer Electronics Report Q2 2016

BMI View: The forecast for China's consumer electronics devices market was negatively impacted by arevision in the assessment for the CNY/USD exchange rate in the Q216 update, with our Country Risk teamnow expected more extensive depreciation. While affected headline market value figures, depreciation andwider economic uncertainty does not change our positive medium term outlook that continues to be basedon the migration of Chinese households up the income scale over the medium term. We believe this will helpto offset the slowdown in volumes that results from increased market saturation, and will provide vendorswith opportunities for selling a larger share of premium devices over the medium term, if the pitfall ofovercapacity is avoided. The core scenario continues to be positive in the Q216 update, however we dorecognise increased uncertainty and significant downside to demand were a hard landing to materialise inChina.

Latest Updates & Industry Developments

Computer Hardware Sales: USD74.7bn in 2016 to USD87.3bn in 2020, a CAGR of 4.0% in US dollarterms. Market maturity means growth will be slower than the decade to 2013, but rising incomes hasupside for vendors to focus on higher price and margin PCs in the retail market.

AV Sales: USD28.9bn in 2016 to USD31.3bn in 2020, a CAGR of 2.0%. AV segment expected tounderperform as digital camera and mp3 demand continues to fall, but smart and Ultra-HD TV sets willprovide a more positive upgrade dynamic for the largest component of the market.

Handset Sales: USD103.8bn in 2016 to USD115.2bn in 2020, a CAGR of 2.6%. Smartphone marketsaturation meant growth began to decelerate since 2014 but we expect handset sales to be theoutperforming segment as shift towards flagships/premium smartphones raises the average selling priceslightly 2016-2020.


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