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China Agribusiness Report Q2 2016

China Agribusiness Report Q2 2016

BMI View: China's weight in the global agricultural sector is swelling, as the country has a growingimpact on international production balances and prices. China will maintain its appetite for keycommodities for the foreseeable future, with particular potential for production growth in sugar, dairy andlivestock. High demand growth, strong government support and the potential for investment andconsolidation in these industries will help them outperform in the coming years. However, the agribusinesssector is experiencing challenging times, seen in the slowdown in meat and milk powder consumption in2015.

Key Forecasts

Corn production growth to 2019/20: 12.3% to 242mn tonnes. Given the decrease in public support tocorn production, output expansion will be driven by a steady improvements in corn yields and theprobable adoption of GM corn in the coming years. China's production deficit will amount around 6mntonnnes by the end of our forecast period.

Pork production growth to 2019/20: 16.1% to 65.5mn tonnes. Increased production continues to beencouraged on the back of elevated local livestock prices. The increased availability of vaccinations andthe ongoing commercialisation of the industry are also likely to boost output.

Sugar consumption growth to 2020: 18.5% to 20mn tonnes. Consumption will be boosted by risingincome, which will support demand for products in key industries, such as the confectionery, dairy,beverage, and food processing

BMI universe agribusiness market value: USD1,410mn in 2016 (up 4.7% compared with 2015,growth forecast to average 4.2% annually between 2016 and 2020).

2016 real GDP growth: 6.3% (down from 6.9% expected in 2015, forecast to average 5.7% between2016 and 2020).

2016 consumer price inflation: 1.5% y-o-y ave (up from 1.3% expected in 2015, forecast to average2.3% between 2016 and 2020).

BMI Industry View
Industry Forecast
Grains Outlook
Table: China
Grains Production And Consumption Outlook
Table: China
Risks To Grains Outlook
Table: Grains Production & Consumption (China 2013
Rice Outlook
Table: China
Rice Production And Consumption Outlook
Table: China
Risks To Rice Outlook
Table: China Grain Procurement Prices (CNY/tonne)
Table: Rice Production & Consumption (Cina 2013
Oilseeds Outlook
Table: China
Soybean Production And Consumption Outlook
Table: China
Risks To Soybean Outlook
Table: Soybean Production & Consumption (China 2013
Sugar Outlook
Table: China
Sugar Production And Consumption Outlook
Table: China
Risks To Sugar Outlook
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (China 2013
Cotton Outlook
Table: China
Cotton Production And Consumption Outlook
Table: China
Risks To Cotton Outlook
Table: Cotton Production & Consumption (China 2012
Dairy Outlook
Table: China
Dairy Production And Consumption Outlook
Table: China
Risks To Dairy Outlook
Table: Dairy Production & Consumption (China 2013
Livestock Outlook
Table: China
Livestock Production And Consumption Outlook
Table: China
Risks To Livestock Outlook
Table: Livestock Production & Consumption (China 2013
Featured Analysis
Provincial Agricultural Landscape: Diverging Trends
Table: China
Agribusiness Production By Provinces, 2014 (% of total)
Table: China
Agribusiness Production Growth By Provinces (% chg between 2010 and 2014)
Commodities Price Analysis
Global Commodities Strategy
Table: Select Commodities
Performance And BMI Forecasts
Upstream Analysis
Asia Machinery Outlook
Table: Select Countries
Average Size Of Farms, Hectares
Asia Fertiliser Outlook
Asia GM Outlook
Table: Selected Countries
GM Crops Use (mn hectares)
Downstream Analysis
Regional Overview
Table: Impact Of El Niño On Crops
Competitive Landscape
Table: China
Major Agribusiness Companies
Demographic Forecast
Table: Population Headline Indicators (China 1990
Table: Key Population Ratios (China 1990
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (China 1990
Table: Population By Age Group (China 1990
Table: Population By Age Group % (China 1990
Industry Forecast Methodology
SectorSpecific Methodology

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