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Chad Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016

Chad Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016

BMI View: The ramping up of production from Glencore and China National Petroleum Corporation's newfields will support production increases in 2016 and 2017. Post 2017 there will be a gradual decline inoutput as a poor project pipeline is unable to offset the falling production rates at the mature Doba field.

Despite large proven reserves and pipeline infrastructure in place, BMI believes that the poor businessenvironment and extraction problems that the consortium is facing will discourage further foreigninvestment in Chad. Throughout our forecast period, Chad will remain a net exporter of refined fuels andcrude oil. The non-existent gas infrastructure gives us reason to believe that there will be no natural gasproduction in our forecast period.

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts

Consumption for refined fuels is set to increase throughout our forecast period at an average annual rateof 4% y-o-y. Chad's refined fuel consumption starts from a low base, with the majority of demandcoming from the electricity sector.

Despite the last couple of years providing positive drilling results, exploration prospects are weak inChad throughout the forecast period. Capex cuts in 2016 are expected across all companies conductingexploration activity in Chad, posing downside risk to their exploration operations.

We expect oil production to rise in 2016 and 2017 as output ramps up from the fields that were broughtonline in 2015. However the long term trend is downwards as decline rates at mature areas acceleratewith no new projects in the pipeline to offset the declines.


BMI Industry View
Table: Headline Forecasts (Chad 2014-2020)
Latest Updates And Key Forecasts
SWOT
Oil & Gas SWOT
Industry Forecast
Upstream Exploration
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Upstream Projects
Table: Upstream Projects - Chad
Upstream Production - Oil
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Oil Production (Chad 2014-2019)
Table: Oil Production (Chad 2020-2025)
Refining
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Chad 2014-2019)
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Chad 2020-2025)
Refined Fuels Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Chad 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Chad 2020-2025)
Trade - Oil
Latest Updates
Crude Oil Trade Forecasts
Structural Trends
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Chad 2014-2019)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Chad 2020-2025)
Fuels Trade Forecasts
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Chad 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (2019-2024)
Industry Risk Reward Index
Africa Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Table: BMI Africa Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Above-Ground Risks Dulling Below-Ground Potential
Table: BMI Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Downstream Sector Holds Limited Opportunity
Table: BMI Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index
Chad - Risk/Reward Index
Upstream Index - Overview
Upstream Index - Rewards
Upstream Index - Risks
Downstream Index - Overview
Market Overview
Chad Energy Market Overview
Regulatory Structure
Fiscal Regime
Table: Chad - Upstream Tax Regime
Licensing Regime
Table: Chad - Contracts And Licensing Regime
Oil & Gas Infrastructure
Table: Oil Refineries In Chad
Table: Oil Pipelines In Chad
Competitive Landscape
Table: Key Players - Chad Energy Sector
Regional Overview
Africa - Bullish Gas, Bearish Oil
Table: Africa Oil & Gas Production, Consumption, Refining Capacity And Trade
Glossary
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Source
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Weighting

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