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Central Asia Country Risk Report Q4 2018

Central Asia Country Risk Report Q4 2018

A likely improvement in the remittance outlook and continued investment in the Kumtor gold mine amid higher gold prices inform our forecast for Kyrgyzstan's real GDP to expand by an average of 4.4% from 2018-2019. In addition, ongoing efforts aimed at increasing the attractiveness of the country to skilled human capital will provide support.

We continue to hold a downbeat outlook on the Tajikistan economy over the coming quarters, as it is undermined by lingering problems in the banking system and fiscal constraints, despite some short-term positives. We therefore forecast real GDP growth to decelerate to 5.8% in 2018 and 5.5% in 2019 from an esti-mated 7.1% in 2017.

We expect Turkmenistan's growth to be driven by ongoing investment in the infrastructure sector, increased natural gas exports to China, and greater co-operation with other Central Asian countries over the coming years.

Uzbekistan's economic growth prospects are likely to be bright in 2018 and 2019, and we maintain our forecasts for real GDP growth to remain robust. Strong infrastructure investment, reforms to improve the business environment, and warming regional relations will support growth.

Key Risks


Brief Methodology
Regional – Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Kyrgyzstan – Country Risk Summary
Kyrgyzstan – Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Regional Integration And Higher Commodity Prices To Buoy Kyrgyz Economy
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
Kyrgyzstan – Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Positive Signs Of Reform In Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan – Country Risk Summary
Tajikistan – Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Tajikistan Facing Mounting Economic Downside Risks
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
Tajikistan – Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Tajikistan's Relations With Its Creditors To Prove Key Source Of Risk
Central Asia Country Risk Q4 2018ContentsTurkmenistan – Country Risk Summary
Turkmenistan – Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Multiple Tailwinds To Support Turkmenistan's Growth, But Not Without Risks
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
Turkmenistan – Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Reforms To Be Implemented In Turkmenistan, But Road Still Bumpy
Uzbekistan – Country Risk Summary
Uzbekistan – Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Uzbekistan's Economic Reforms Continue At Rapid Pace
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
Uzbekistan – Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Uzbekistan's Economic Reforms To Outpace Its Political Reforms
Global Macro Outlook
Fewer Negative Surprises, But Trade Risks Rising
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: CENTRAL ASIA – MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS

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