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Central Asia Country Risk Report Q1 2019

Central Asia Country Risk Report Q1 2019

The Central Asian region will enjoy strong rates of GDP growth in the coming years, helping the region gradually converge with other frontier markets in Asia Growth will be supported by improved reform momentum, increasing regional cooperation, higher global energy prices, and China's 'Belt and Road' Initiative

We have decreased our forecast for 2018 real GDP growth owing to the re-emergence of a dispute between the Kyrgyz government and the owner of the country's largest gold mine At this stage, we believe that a deal between the two parties will be reached in the coming months and we therefore expect the economy to recover in 2019 with the revival aided by rising gold prices However, there are substantial risks that the dispute will linger and economic weakness could persist into 2019, with a slowdown likely to spread beyond the mining sector

We continue to hold a downbeat outlook on the Tajikistan economy over the coming quarters as it is undermined by lingering problems in the banking system and fiscal constraints, despite some short-term positives We therefore forecast real GDP growth to decelerate to 5 8% in 2018 and 5 5% in 2019 from an esti-mated 7 1% in 2017

We expect Turkmenistan's growth to be driven by ongoing investment in the infrastructure sector, increased natural gas exports to China, and greater co-operation with other Central Asian countries over the coming years

Uzbekistan's economic growth prospects are likely to be bright in 2018 and 2019, and we maintain our forecasts for real GDP growth to remain robust Strong infrastructure investment, reforms to improve the business environment, and warming regional relations will support growth

Key Risks


Brief Methodology
Regional – Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Kyrgyzstan – Country Risk Summary
Kyrgyzstan – Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Kyrgyz Real GDP Growth To Weaken In The Short-Term And Longer Term Risks Growing
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
Kyrgyzstan – Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Political Tensions Set To Rise In The Coming Months In Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan – Country Risk Summary
Tajikistan – Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Potential IMF Deal Could Ease Downside Risks To Tajikistan's Economic Growth
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
Tajikistan – Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Tajikistan-Afghanistan Border Region A Rising Threat To Stability
THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings’ Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings’ analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.Central Asia Country Risk Q1 2019ContentsTurkmenistan – Country Risk Summary
Turkmenistan – Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Turkmenistan To Benefit From Higher Energy Prices And Infrastructure
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
Turkmenistan – Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Turkmenistan's Subsidy Reforms Risk Rising Social Instability
Uzbekistan – Country Risk Summary
Uzbekistan – Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Uzbekistan's Reform Process Facing Headwinds
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
Uzbekistan – Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Uzbekistan Courts Russia But Keeping Options Open
Global Macro Outlook
Inflation And Policy Risks Rising
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: CENTRAL ASIA – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS

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