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Central America Freight Transport Report Q3 2015


Attention: There is an updated edition available for this report.

Oil Prices Boost Regional Freight ProspectsLower oil prices remain a positive factor for the Central American economies as a whole, as does the USrecovery, with positive side-effects for the freight industry. Increased remittances from migrant workers inthe US will also boost purchasing power. But uncertainties and problems remain. While the region's coffeeexports are recovering from coffee leaf rust disease, generally weak commodity export prices in general areholding back export volumes. Many governments in the region are also struggling to control fiscal deficitsand foreign debt levels, putting a ceiling on expected rates of GDP growth. Also, continuing high levels ofcrime, coupled with protests over corruption and other issues (particularly in Guatemala) have maintained arelatively high level of political risk.

Our view is that for road freight, the dominant form of cargo transport, tonnage growth will remain in thelow single percentage digits. Air freight will do a little better. Despite some interesting efforts to rehabilitatesome of the region's railways, it will take many years before any concrete results can be seen. As far asindustry-specific developments are concerned, the focus is still on the widening of the Panama Canal whichis expected to be completed in April 2016. Greater shipping traffic through the enlarged Canal will havepositive knock-on-effects for other transport modes, with multimodal hubs expected to boost truckingdemand in port hinterland areas. Nicaragua's extremely ambitious and enigmatic 'Grand Canal' project tocompete with the Panama Canal continues to progress.


BMI Industry View
SWOT
Belize Freight Transport SWOT
Costa Rica Freight Transport SWOT
El Salvador Freight Transport SWOT
Guatemala Freight Transport SWOT
Honduras Freight Transport SWOT
Nicaragua Freight Transport SWOT
Industry Forecast
Belize Trade Forecast
Table: Trade Overview (Belize 2012-2019)
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Belize 2012-2019)
Table: Top 5 Trade Partners - Product Imports (2008-2013), USDmn
Table: Top 5 Trade Partners - Product Exports (2008-2013), USDmn
Belize Road Freight Forecast
Table: Road Freight (Belize 2012-2019)
Belize Air Freight Forecast
Table: Air Freight (Belize 2012-2019)
Costa Rica Trade Forecast
Table: Trade Overview (Costa Rica 2012-2019)
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Costa Rica 2012-2019)
Table: Top 5 Trade Partners - Product Imports (2008-2013), USDmn
Table: Top 5 Trade Partners - Product Exports (2008-2013), USDmn
Costa Rica Road Freight Forecast
Table: Road Freight (Costa Rica 2012-2019)
Costa Rica Air Freight Forecast
Table: Air Freight (Costa Rica 2012-2019)
El Salvador Trade Forecast
Table: Trade Overview (El Salvador 2012-2019)
Table: Key Trade Indicators (El Salvador 2012-2019)
Table: Top 5 Trade Partners - Product Imports (2008-2013), USDmn
Table: Top 5 Trade Partners - Product Exports (2008-2013), USDmn
El Salvador Road Freight Forecast
Table: Road Freight (El Salvador 2012-2019)
El Salvador Air Freight Forecast
Table: Air Freight (El Salvador 2012-2019)
Guatemala Trade Forecast
Table: Trade Overview (Guatemala 2012-2019)
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Guatemala 2012-2019)
Table: Top 5 Trade Partners - Product Imports (2008-2013), USDmn
Table: Top 5 Trade Partners - Product Exports (2008-2013), USDmn
Guatemala Road Freight Forecast
Table: Road Freight (Guatemala 2012-2019)
Guatemala Air Freight Forecast
Table: Air Freight (Guatemala 2012-2019)
Honduras Trade Forecast
Table: Trade Overview (Honduras 2012-2019)
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Honduras 2012-2019)
Table: Top 5 Trade Partners - Product Imports (2008-2013), USDmn
Table: Top 5 Trade Partners - Product Exports (2008-2013), USDmn
Honduras Road Freight Forecast
Table: Road Freight (Honduras 2012-2019)
Honduras Air Freight Forecast
Table: Air Freight (Honduras 2012-2019)
Nicaragua Trade Forecast
Table: Trade Overview (Nicaragua 2012-2019)
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Nicaragua 2012-2019)
Table: Top 5 Trade Partners - Product Imports (2008-2013), USDmn
Table: Top 5 Trade Partners - Product Exports (2008-2013), USDmn
Nicaragua Road Freight Forecast
Table: Road Freight (Nicaragua 2012-2019)
Nicaragua Air Freight Forecast
Table: Air Freight (Nicaragua 2012-2019)
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Domestic Politics
Domestic Politics
Domestic Politics
Domestic Politics
Domestic Politics
Oil Price Outlook
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2013-2018
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2019-2024 ( Global 2019-2024)
Macroeconomic Forecasts
Table: Macroeconomic Indicators (Costa Rica 2014-2024)
Table: Macroeconomic Indicators (El Salvador 2014-2024)
Table: Macroeconomic Indicators (Guatemala 2014-2024)
Table: Macroeconomic Indicators (Honduras 2014-2024)
Table: Macroeconomic Indicators (Nicaragua 2014-2024)
Table: Macroeconomic Indicators (Panama 2014-2024)
Demographic Forecast
Demographic Outlook
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Costa Rica 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Costa Rica 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Costa Rica 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Costa Rica 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Costa Rica 1990-2025)
Demographic Outlook
Table: Population Headline Indicators (El Salvador 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (El Salvador 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (El Salvador 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (El Salvador 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (El Salvador 1990-2025)
Demographic Outlook
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Guatemala 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Guatemala 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Guatemala 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Guatemala 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Guatemala 1990-2025)
Demographic Outlook
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Honduras 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Honduras 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population And Life Expectancy (Honduras 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Honduras 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Honduras 1990-2025)
Demographic Forecast
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Nicaragua 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Nicaragua 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Nicaragua 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Nicaragua 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Nicaragua 1990-2025)
Demographic Forecast
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Panama 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Panama 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Panama 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Panama 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Panama 1990-2025)
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sector-Specific Methodology
Sources

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