Central America Country Risk Report Q1 2020

Central America Country Risk Report Q1 2020

Despite modest downward revisions, our outlook for Central America is broadly positive, with Nicaragua the lone exception. Growth in the Northern Triangle and CostaRica will range from 2.2% to 3.4% y-o-y in the coming quarters.


Brief Methodology
Regional – Executive Summary
SWOT – Regional
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Political Outlook – Regional
Long-Term Political Outlook
Costa Rica – Country Risk Summary
Costa Rica – Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Weaker Domestic Demand And Exports Will Undermine Costa Rican Growth
Currency Forecast
CRC: Weak Growth Outlook Likely To Weigh On Costa Rican Colón
TABLE: CURRENCY FORECAST
Costa Rica – Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Weak Economy Will Likely Prevent Reform Efforts In Costa Rica
El Salvador – Country Risk Summary
El Salvador – Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Revenue Slowdown To Drive Fiscal Deficit Wider In El Salvador
El Salvador – Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Falling Crime In El Salvador Will Reinforce Bukele's Popularity
Guatemala – Country Risk Summary
Guatemala – Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Remittance Inflows To Drive Modest Current Account Surplus In Guatemala
Monetary Policy
Banco De Guatemala To Maintain Its Benchmark Rate Amid Stable Inflation
THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings’ Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings’ analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.Central America Country Risk Q1 2020ContentsGuatemala – Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Incoming Guatemalan President Faces Rising Risks Ahead Of Term
Honduras – Country Risk Summary
Honduras – Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Capital Expenditures On Public Utilities To Reverse Fiscal Consolidation In Honduras
External Trade And Investment Outlook
Widening Trade Imbalance Will Drive Current Account Deficits In Honduras
Honduras – Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Hernández Will Maintain Hold On Honduras Presidency Despite Protests
Nicaragua – Country Risk Summary
Nicaragua – Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Nicaragua Unlikely To Return To Growth In 2020
Currency Forecast
NIO: Crawling Peg To Remain In Place, Despite Downside Pressures
TABLE: CURRENCY FORECAST
Nicaragua – Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Nicaragua's Ortega Likely To Finish Term, Despite Numerous Risks
Global Macro Outlook
Lower Growth, Despite Some Trade Progress
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2018-2023)
TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: COSTA RICA – MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS
TABLE: EL SALVADOR – MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS
TABLE: GUATEMALA – MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS
TABLE: HONDURAS – MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS
TABLE: NICARAGUA – MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS

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