Central America Agribusiness Q4 2019
We have made a wave of revisions this quarter to our agribusiness forecasts in the Central America region. The revisionshave been mixed both to the upside and the downside and have come about following changes to USDA historical data and inrepose to both structural and event-driven changes. Following these revisions, we hold a positive outlook for the sector as a whole,with only a handful of average annual contractions in growth forecast across our five-year forecast period. Our view is that as a resultof rising incomes and growing populations as well as an improving real GDP outlook for the region, demand growth will largelyoutstrip supply growth in the livestock, grains and sugar sectors through to 2023, with the beef market being the exception to thisrule. In the coffee market the balance is slightly more in favour of output. Focusing on the key sugar market, we highlight thatproduction growth will rise, predominantly owing to increasing yields thanks to the adoption of more productive sugarcanevarieties as well as better pest control and irrigation. Furthermore, our sugar price forecasts have turned positive for the first time intwo years for 2019, which will provide a further tailwind to producers.
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