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Central America Agribusiness Report Q4 2017

BMI View: Despite a revision to a number of our forecast this quarter, we continue to predict that CentralAmerica's agribusiness industry will continue to grow - albeit inconsistently across sectors - through to theend of our five-year forecast period in 2020/21. The biggest changes have come in the coffee sub-sector,where we have made revision to our forecasts across all six nations in the region we report on, with amixture of upwards and downwards changes. As a result of rising incomes and growing populations, aswell as an improving real GDP outlook for the region, demand growth will outstrip supply growth in thelivestock and grains sectors over the next five years. Future risks for the agribusiness market includedisease (predominantly coffee rust disease, or roya) and the potential impact of La Niña on food security inthe region.

Key Forecasts

In the key producer nation of Honduras, we have revised upwards our forecasts for production starting in2017 and for each full-year period through to the end of our forecast period in 2021. We now see outputaccelerating to a level of 6.3mn 60kg bags in 2017 and 7.45mn 60kg bags in 2021. At the same time, wehave revised downwards our forecasts for coffee consumption in Honduras across our forecast period.We now see demand reaching 345,000 60kg bags in 2017 and 375,000 60kg bags by the end of 2021.


BMI Industry View
SWOT
Agribusiness
Industry Forecast
Livestock Outlook
Latest Updates
Table: Central America - Livestock Production And Consumption Outlook
Table: Risks To Outlook
Structural Trends
Table: Selected Countries - Beef And Veal Production And Consumption, '000 tonnes
Table: Select Countries - Pork Production And Consumption, '000 tonnes
Grains Outlook
Latest Updates
Table: Central America - Corn Production And Consumption Outlook
Table: Risks To Outlook
Structural Trends
Table: Select Countries - Corn Production And Consumption, '000 tonnes
Coffee Outlook
Latest Updates
Table: Central America - Coffee Production And Consumption Outlook
Table: Risks To Outlook
Structural Trends
Table: Select Countries - Coffee Production And Consumption, '000 60kg bags
Sugar Outlook
Latest Updates
Table: Central America - Sugar Production And Consumption Outlook
Table: Risks To Outlook
Structural Trends
Table: Select Countries - Sugar Production And Consumption, '000 tonnes
Commodities Price Analysis
Monthly Commodities Strategy: Upside Risks From China
Table: BMI Commodities Views
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
Upstream Analysis
Americas GM Outlook
Table: Agtech Competitive Landscape In The Americas
Americas Machinery Outlook
Table: IoT And Big Data In Agribusiness: Potential Applications And Impacts
Americas Fertiliser Outlook
Downstream Analysis
Food
Recent Developments
Market Drivers And Trends
Regional Overview
Five Key Themes For The Americas Agribusiness
Table: AgTech Competitive Landscape In The Americas
Demographic Forecast
Demographic Outlook
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Belize 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Belize 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Belize 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Belize 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Belize 1990-2025)
Costa Rica Demographic Outlook
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Costa Rica 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Costa Rica 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Costa Rica 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Costa Rica 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Costa Rica 1990-2025)
Guatemala Demographic Outlook
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Guatemala 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Guatemala 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Guatemala 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Guatemala 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Guatemala 1990-2025)
Honduras Demographic Outlook
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Honduras 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Honduras 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Honduras 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Honduras 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Honduras 1990-2025)
Nicaragua Demographic Outlook
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Nicaragua 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Nicaragua 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Nicaragua 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Nicaragua 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Nicaragua 1990-2025)
Panama Demographic Outlook
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Panama 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Panama 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Panama 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Panama 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Panama 1990-2025)
El Salvador Demographic Outlook
Table: Population Headline Indicators (El Salvador 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (El Salvador 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (El Salvador 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (El Salvador 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (El Salvador 1990-2025)
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sector-Specific Methodology

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