Central America Agribusiness Q2 2018
We continue to predict growth in Central America's agribusiness industry across our newly-extended forecast period to2022. We highlight that this bullish view is inconsistently across sectors and faces a number of headwinds. However, we areforecasting a positive outlook across the two markets and six nations we track in both production and consumption with thesole exception of beef production in Nicaragua. After making a number of changes last time out, our revisions to our forecasts thisquarter have been more modest but strengthening our positive view on the sector, weighed to the upside. We have revised upwardsour forecasts for corn production in El Salvador, sugar consumption in Honduras, and also pork production in Honduras. Meanwhile,the only revision downwards to our forecasts this quarter has been for sugar consumption in Guatemala. As a result of risingincomes and growing populations, as well as an improving real GDP outlook for the region, demand growth will largely outstripsupply growth in the livestock and grains sectors over the next five years. Future risks for the agribusiness market include disease(predominantly coffee rust disease, or roya) and the potential impact of La Niña on food security in the region.
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