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Central America Agribusiness Report Q1 2016

Central America Agribusiness Report Q1 2016

BMI View: We believe that Central America's agribusiness industry will continue to grow - albeitinconsistently across sectors - through to the end of our forecast period in 2019. Along the way, thedifferent sectors of the market will be forced to grapple with an array of headwinds that will directly impactoutput growth across some countries in the region. As a result of rising incomes and growing populations,as well as an improving real GDP outlook for the region, we expect consumption output to outstrip supplyin the livestock sector. Future risks for the agribusiness market include disease (predominantly coffee rustdisease, or roya) and the potential impact of El Niño on food security in the region.

Key BMI Forecasts

Coffee production growth 2013/15 to 2018/19: 35.6% to 15.9mn 60kg bags. As the effects of royahave eased and regional prices remain elevated, output will accelerate. We expect output in the region toincrease over our forecast period to 2019.

2015 real GDP growth (regional average): 3.7% (unchanged from our last quarterly update)

2015 consumer price inflation (regional average): 2.3% (down from 4.0% in 2014).


BMI Industry View
SWOT
Agribusiness
Industry Forecast
Livestock Outlook
Table: Central America - Livestock Production & Consumption Outlook
Table: Risks To Outlook
Table: Selected Countries - Beef & Veal Production & Consumption
Table: Select Countries - Pork Production & Consumption
Grains Outlook
Table: Central America - Corn Production & Consumption Outlook
Table: Risks To Outlook
Table: Select Countries - Corn Production & Consumption
Coffee Outlook
Table: Central America - Coffee Production & Consumption Outlook
Table: Risks To Outlook
Table: Select Countries - Coffee Production & Consumption
Sugar Outlook
Table: Central America - Sugar Production & Consumption Outlook
Table: Risks To Outlook
Table: Select Countries - Sugar Production & Consumption
Commodities Price Analysis
Global Commodities Strategy
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts
Upstream Analysis
Americas Machinery Outlook
Table: Select Companies - Sales Forecasts By Region (Company-based estimates)
Americas GM Outlook
Americas Fertiliser Outlook
Downstream Analysis
Food
Food Consumption
Table: Costa Rica - Food Consumption Indicators
Table: El Salvador - Food Consumption Indicators
Table: Guatemala - Food Consumption Indicators
Table: Honduras - Food Consumption Indicators
Confectionery
Meat
Jams & Jellies
Table: El Salvador - Jam & Jellies Volume Sales, Production & Trade
Pasta
Table: El Salvador - Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade
Prepared Fish
Table: Costa Rica - Fish Volume Sales, Production & Trade
Table: El Salvador - FIsh Volume Sales, Production & Trade
Oils & Fats
Table: Costa Rica - Soya Bean Oil Sales, Production & Trade
Table: Guatemala - Soya Bean Oil Sales, Production & Trade
Table: El Salvador - Margarine Volume Sales, Production & Trade
Dairy
Table: El Salvador - Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade
Regional Overview
Demographic Forecast
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Belize 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Belize 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Belize 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Belize 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Belize 1990-2025)
Demographic Outlook
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Costa Rica 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Costa Rica 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Costa Rica 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Costa Rica 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Costa Rica 1990-2025)
Demographic Outlook
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Guatemala 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Guatemala 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Guatemala 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Guatemala 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Guatemala 1990-2025)
Demographic Outlook
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Honduras 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Honduras 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Honduras 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Honduras 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Honduras 1990-2025)
Demographic Forecast
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Nicaragua 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Nicaragua 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Nicaragua 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Nicaragua 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Nicaragua 1990-2025)
Demographic Forecast
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Panama 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Panama 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Panama 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Panama 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Panama 1990-2025)
Demographic Outlook
Table: Population Headline Indicators (El Salvador 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (El Salvador 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (El Salvador 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (El Salvador 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (El Salvador 1990-2025)
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sector-Specific Methodology

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