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Caribbean Tourism Report Q2 2016

Caribbean Tourism Report Q2 2016

BMI View: Arrivals growth in the Caribbean will pick up to 2.3% in 2016, reflecting improved visitornumbers from Europe and North America. The Dominican Republic, St Eustatius and Cuba are expectingthe highest rate of arrivals growth, but all tourism markets will experience growth in 2016. However, theoutbreak of the Zika virus from late 2015 could pose downside risks to 2016 arrivals forecasts.

We currently expect arrivals to the Caribbean to grow by 2.3% in 2016, to 33.5mn, reflecting animprovement from growth of only 0.6% in 2015. We expect the Dominican Republic, Cuba, St Eustatiusand St Lucia to post the highest level of arrivals growth in 2016, at around 6%, but we note the positive signthat all Caribbean countries except St Vincent will experience arrivals growth in 2016, for the first timesince the downturn.

Despite this positive outlook, we believe that the Zika virus outbreak could pose a risk to our forecasts in2016. The virus, which can lead to cases of microcephaly in pregnant women, has been identified in severalCaribbean countries and the US Center for Disease Prevention and Control (CDC) issued a travel warningin January 2016, advising pregnant woman not to travel to those countries. Data is not yet available onJanuary arrivals, so we are unable to assess whether this warning has had a major deterrent effect. However,if this is the case, then there will be a negative impact on arrivals and tourism receipts for 2016.


BMI Industry View
SWOT
Tourism
Industry Forecast
Regional Forecast
Table: Caribbean Inbound Tourism, 2012-2020
Table: Caribbean Country-By-Country Breakdown Of Arrivals, Excluding Cruise, 2014-2020
Table: Caribbean Arrivals By Method & Region, 2012-2020
Table: Caribbean Transport & Travel Receipts, 2012-2020
Hotels
Table: Caribbean Hotel Accommodation, 2012-2020
Table: Caribbean Hotels & Restaurants Industry Value, 2012-2020
Country-Specific Forecasts
The Bahamas
Table: Bahamas Hotel Accommodation Figures, 2012-2020
The Dominican Republic
Table: Dominican Republic Hotel Accommodation Figures, 2012-2020
Jamaica
Table: Jamaica Hotel Accommodation Figures, 2012-2020
Aruba
Table: Aruba Hotel Accommodation Figures, 2012-2020
Cuba
Table: Cuba Hotel Accommodation Figures, 2012-2020
The Cayman Islands
Table: Cayman Islands Hotel Accommodation Figures, 2012-2020
Puerto Rico
Table: Puerto Rico Hotel Accommodation Figures, 2012-2020
Barbados
Table: Barbados Hotel Accommodation Figures, 2012-2020
St Lucia
Table: St Lucia Hotel Accommodation Figures, 2012-2019
Trinidad & Tobago
Table: Trinidad & Tobago Hotel Accommodation Figures, 2012-2019
Industry Risk/Reward Index
Tourism Risk/Reward Index
Table: Caribbean - Tourism Risk/Reward Index
Rewards
Risks
Market Overview
Competitive Landscape
Domestic Hotel Groups
Table: Domestic Hotel Groups
International Hotel Groups
Table: International Hotel Groups
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Weighting Of Indicators

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