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Caribbean Tourism Report Q2 2015

Caribbean Tourism Report Q2 2015

BMI View: More robust economic growth in the US will increase tourist arrivals to the East Caribbean Currency Union countries in 2015. However, weak real GDP growth in key tourism source markets in the eurozone and throughout the Caribbean will constrain growth in total arrivals. Beyond the Eastern Caribbean, we see particular value in Cuba, where the market is poised for expansion.

With economic recoveries in a number of developed markets set to continue, we anticipate a further rise in Caribbean tourist arrivals and receipts in 2015. We forecast total arrivals will rise by an average of 3.1% per year between 2015 and 2016, with international tourism receipts to grow by an annual average of 4.2% during that period. However, the gains will not be equally shared. Caribbean economies heavily dependent on tourists from the US will largely fare better than those that rely on European arrivals, in line with our more sanguine economic outlook on the US. We forecast solid, if unspectacular, arrivals growth in major Caribbean tourism markets, such as Jamaica and Puerto Rico, which rely heavily on US tourists. In contrast, those countries with significant shares of European arrivals, such as Antigua and Barbuda, Grenada, Bonaire, Curacao and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, are poised to see weaker growth.

BMI Industry View
Industry Forecast
Regional Forecast
Inbound Tourism
Table: Caribbean Inbound Tourism, 2012-2019f
Table: Caribbean Country-By-Country Breakdown Of Arrivals (excluding cruise), 2014-2019f
Table: Caribbean Arrivals By Method & Region, 2012-2019f
Table: Caribbean Transport & Travel Receipts, 2012-2019f
Table: Caribbean Hotel Accommodation, 2012-2019f
Table: Caribbean Hotels & Restaurants Industry Value, 2012-2019f
Country-Specific Forecasts
The Bahamas
Table: Bahamas Hotel Accommodation Figures, 2012-2019f
The Dominican Republic
Table: Dominican Republic Hotel Accommodation Figures, 2012-2019f
Table: Jamaica Hotel Accommodation Figures, 2012-2019f
Table: Aruba Hotel Accommodation Figures, 2012-2019f
Table: Cuba Hotel Accommodation Figures, 2012-2019f
The Cayman Islands
Table: Cayman Islands Hotel Accommodation Figures, 2012-2019f
Puerto Rico
Table: Puerto Rico Hotel Accommodation Figures, 2012-2019f
Table: Barbados Hotel Accommodation Figures, 2012-2019f
St Lucia
Table: St Lucia Hotel Accommodation Figures, 2012-2019f
Trinidad & Tobago
Table: Trinidad & Tobago Hotel Accommodation Figures, 2012-2019f
Industry Risk/Reward Index
Tourism Risk/Reward Index
Table: Caribbean - Tourism Risk/Reward Index
Market Overview
Table: Caribbean Transport Infrastructure Projects
Table: Global Hotel Groups' Presence In The Caribbean
Competitive Landscape
Elite Island Resorts
Island Inns
Meliá Hotels International
Occidental Hotels & Resorts
Playa Hotels and Resorts
Royal Caribbean Cruises
Sandals Resorts
Global Industry Overview
Global Assumptions
Table: Global Assumptions, 2014-2019
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2014-2017 (% change y-o-y)
Developed States
Table: Developed States, Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2014-2017
Emerging Markets
Table: Emerging Markets, Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2014-2017
Table: BMI Versus Bloomberg Consensus Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2015 And 2016 (%)
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Weighting Of Indicators

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