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Canada Retail Report Q4 2015

Canada Retail Report Q4 2015

BMI View: The global decline of oil prices is impacting the Canadian economy in 2015. Falling exports ledto a prolonged contraction in the country's output which has been shrinking for every month betweenFebruary and June 2015 and this trend is likely to continue over the next few months as the economycontinues to adjust. Nevertheless, household incomes are projected to grow in 2016-2019 thanks to risingemployment and wages. Wealthy Canadian consumers will continue to support a diverse retail sector.

A sharp decline in Canada's export value caused by the oil price slump will be the key driver of theslowdown of the Canadian economy. We project that real GDP growth will decelerate from 2.5% in 2014 to1.5% in 2015. As the economy adjusts with the government rebalancing its budget and companies reshapingtheir investment strategies, output expansion will pick up next year, with real GDP growth forecasted at1.7%. As a highly developed country and diversified economy, Canada has limited exposure to the oil pricefluctuations. It will face some of the mildest economic impacts among all major oil and gas exporters thisyear and will see a quick recovery in 2016. However, oil companies are and will be forced to boost theircost efficiency. 300,000 oil and gas employees in the country, some of the highest paid professionals inCanada, have seen their wages being cut since the beginning of this year and further reductions can beexpected in 2016. For luxury and high-end retailers whose businesses rely partly on the expenditures ofwealthy oil and gas workers, wage cuts mean a potential slowdown in sales.

BMI Industry View
Industry Forecast
Headline Retail Forecast
Table: Total Household Spending (Canada 2012-2019)
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (Canada 2012-2019)
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (Canada 2012-2019)
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % of GDP (Canada 2012-2019)
Retail Sector Forecast
Food, Drink and Tobacco
Table: Food, Drink & Tobacco Spending (Canada 2012-2019)
Clothing and Footwear
Table: Clothing & Footwear Spending (Canada 2012-2019)
Household Goods Spending
Table: Household Goods Spending (Canada 2012-2019)
Table: Consumer Electronics Spending (Canada 2012-2019)
Table: Toys, Sports, Gardens and Pets Spending (Canada 2012-2019)
Personal Care Spending
Table: Personal Care Spending (Canada 2012-2019)
Household Numbers and Income Forecast
Table: Household Income Data (Canada 2012-2019)
Table: Labour Market Data (Canada 2012-2019)
Demographic Forecast
Table: Total Population (Canada 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Babies (Canada 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Young Children (Canada 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Children (Canada 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children (Canada 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Young People (Canada 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Older Teenagers (Canada 2012-2019)
Table: Population: 21yrs + (Canada 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Young Adults (Canada 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Middle Aged (Canada 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Urban (Canada 2012-2019)
Macroeconomic Forecasts
Economic Analysis
Table: Canada Macroeconomic Forecasts
Table: Average Oil Price Forecasts (USD/bbl)
Table: Private Consumption Forecasts
Table: Government Consumption Forecasts
Table: Fixed Investment Forecasts
Table: Net Exports Forecasts
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Developed States Risk/Reward Index
Table: Developed States - Retail Risk/Reward Index
Industry Risk Reward Index
Market Overview
Competitive Landscape
Department Stores
Homeware and Hardware
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators

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