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Canada Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016

Canada Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016

BMI View: Our growth outlook for Canada's oil and gas industry remains modest given mountingheadwinds in both the upstream and midstream sectors amid a low oil price environment. The greatestthreats are unfavourable project economics and regulatory headwinds that will hamper the growth of oilsands-driven production, midstream expansions and LNG terminal development. This is exacerbated by thelikely drop in exploratory activity throughout Canadian acreage as companies revise capital expendituresin the coming year.The latest developments in Canada's oil and gas sector are:

We are reaffirmed in our negative outlook on long-term crude production growth in Canada following theelection victory for the Liberal Party in October. A low oil price outlook and insufficient pipelinetakeaway capacity will combine with the government's strong environmental mandate to undermineupstream and midstream developments.

Prime Minister Trudeau and the Albertan government's financial commitments will strengthen supportfor midstream projects in the province to service existing oil sands operations. However, under its newleadership, Alberta will boost its environmental mandate, undermining pre-FID upstream developments.

The proposed 50,000b/d expansion of Imperial Oil's Cold Lake bitumen project in March represents aunique opportunity for a more financially stable company to explore more efficient production methods.The extended life-time of this brownfield project supports its development but does not indicate a broaderexpansion of Canadian upstream capacity beyond 2017.

The announced acquisition of Canadian Oil Sands by Suncor in January for USD2.9bn will increaseefficiencies at the company's Syncrude joint venture. Consolidation among larger producers supports ourview that continued financial stress will threaten Canada's competitive landscape in 2016.


BMI Industry View
Table: Headline Forecasts (Canada 2014-2020)
SWOT
Oil & Gas SWOT
Industry Forecast
Upstream Exploration
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Shale Resources-In-Place, Alberta
Upstream Projects
Table: Canada Key Upstream Projects
Upstream Production - Oil
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Oil Production (Canada 2014-2019)
Table: Oil Production (Canada 2020-2025)
Upstream Production - Gas
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Gas Production (Canada 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Production (Canada 2020-2025)
Refining
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Canada 2014-2019)
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Canada 2020-2025)
Refined Fuels Consumption
Latest Trends
Structural Trends
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Canada 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Canada 2020-2025)
Gas Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Gas Consumption (Canada 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Consumption (Canada 2020-2025)
Trade - Oil
Latest Updates
Structural Trends:
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Canada 2014-2020)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Canada 2020-2025)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Canada 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Canada 2020-2025)
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Canadian Key LNG Export Projects
Table: Gas Net Exports (Canada 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Net Exports (Canada 2020-2025)
Industry Risk/Reward Index
North America And Western Europe - Risk/Reward Index
Table: North America And Western Europe - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Upstream: North America To Maintain Lead
Table: North America And Western Europe - Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Downstream: US Widens Lead
Table: North America And Western Europe - Downstream Risk/Reward Index
Canada - Risk/Reward Index
Canada Upstream Index
Canada Downstream Index
Market Overview
Canada Energy Market Overview
State Role
Licensing And Regulation
Table: Generic Offshore Petroleum Royalty Regime
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
Table: Downstream Projects
Service Stations
Oil Pipelines
LNG Regasification Terminals
LNG Liquefaction Terminals
Gas Pipelines
Gas Service Stations
Competitive Landscape
Competitive Landscape Summary
Table: Key Players - Oil And Gas Sector
Table: Key Upstream Players
Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Profile
Suncor
Shell Canada
Encana
Other Summaries
Regional Overview
North America And Western Europe Regional Overview
Table: North America - Key Regional Indicators, 2013-2024
Table: Western Europe - Key Regional Indicators, 2013-2024
Glossary
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Source
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Weighting

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