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Canada Oil and Gas Report Q1 2015


Attention: There is an updated edition available for this report.

Canada Oil and Gas Report Q1 2015

BMI View: Our growth outlook for Canada's oil and gas industry has grown increasingly modest givenmounting headwinds in both the upstream and midstream sectors amid lower oil prices. The greatest threatsto these projects are the challenging project economics and regulatory headwinds that could hamper thegrowth of oil sands-driven production and LNG terminal development, weighing on total hydrocarbonoutput. This is exacerbated by the likely drop in exploratory activity throughout Canadian acreage ascompanies revise capital expenditures in the coming years, with reserves likely to suffer as a result.

The main trends and developments we highlight for Canada's oil and gas sector are:

Canada's proven oil reserves are expected to trend lower from 173.2bn bbl at the beginning of 2014 to170.82bn bbl in 2018 due to a slowdown in oil sands investment. However, we expect reserves to holdaround this level thereafter, as a result of new liquids-rich shale developments.

Proven gas reserves will increase from 1.89tcm at the beginning of 2014 to a peak of 1.96tcm in 2018 asshale deposits are booked as reserves. Beginning in 2019, reserves are likely to experience steadydeclines to 2023 as a result of declining exploratory activity.


BMI Industry View
Table: Headline Forecasts (Canada 2012-2018)
SWOT
Oil & Gas SWOT
Industry Forecast
Upstream Exploration
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Canada 2012-2017)
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Canada 2018-2023)
Table: Shale Resources-In-Place, Alberta
Upstream Projects
Table: Canada Key Upstream Projects
Upstream Production - Oil
Table: Oil Production (Canada 2012-2017)
Table: Oil Production (Canada 2018-2023)
Upstream Production - Gas
Table: Gas Production (Canada 2012-2017)
Table: Gas Production (Canada 2018-2023)
Refining
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Canada 2012-2017)
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Canada 2018-2023)
Refined Fuels Consumption
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Canada 2012-2017)
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Canada 2018-2023)
Gas Consumption
Table: Gas Consumption (Canada 2012-2017)
Table: Gas Consumption (Canada 2018-2023)
Trade - Oil
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Canada 2012-2017)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Canada 2018-2023)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Canada 2012-2017)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Canada 2018-2023)
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Canada 2012-2017)
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Canada 2018-2023)
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
Table: Gas Net Exports (Canada 2012-2017)
Table: Gas Net Exports (Canada 2018-2023)
Table: Proposed/Planned LNG Export Projects In Canada
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
North America And Western Europe - Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: North America & Western Europe States Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Upstream: US Nearly On Par With Canada
Table: Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Western Europe Languishes Without Shale Outlook
Downstream: US Comes Out Tops
Table: Oil & Gas Downstream Risk/Reward Index
Canada - Risk/Reward Index
Canada Upstream Index - Overview
Canada Upstream Index - Rewards
Canada Upstream Index - Risks
Canada Downstream Index - Overview
Market Overview
Canada Energy Market Overview
Overview/State Role
Licensing And Regulation
Table: Generic Offshore Petroleum Royalty Regime
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
Table: Downstream Projects
Service Stations
Oil Pipelines
LNG Regasification Terminals
LNG Liquefaction Terminals
Gas Pipelines
Gas Service Stations
Competitive Landscape
Competitive Landscape Summary
Table: Key Players - Oil And Gas Sector
Table: Key Upstream Players
Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Profile
Suncor
Shell Canada
Encana
Other Summaries
Regional Overview
North America And Western Europe Regional
Global Industry Overview
Table: Key US Production Zones Average Full Cycle Breakeven Cost Per Barrel (USD/bbl)
Table: Canadian Oil Sands Average Full Cycle Breakeven Cost Per Barrel (USD/bbl)
Table: Middle East Onshore Conventional Breakeven Cost Per Barrel, (USD/BBL)
Table: Average Fiscal Breakeven Prices Of Key Middle East Producers 2014 (USD/bbl)
Appendix
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
Table: Energy Price Forecasts ( Global 2012-2017)
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2018-2023)
North America Regional Appendix
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
Table: LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
Canada - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-Year Forecasts
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Canada 2012-2017)
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Canada 2018-2023)
Canada - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-Year Forecasts
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Canada 2012-2017)
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Canada 2018-2023)
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Canada 2012-2017)
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Canada 2018-2023)
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Canada 2012-2017)
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Canada 2018-2023)
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Canada 2012-2017)
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Canada 2018-2023)
Glossary
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Source
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Weighting

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