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Canada Country Risk Report Q3 2018

Canada Country Risk Report Q3 2018

The Canadian economy will slow in 2018-19 as robust private con-sumption grinds to a more sustainable level.

Monetary tightening from the Bank of Canada will help to support the Canadian dollar.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Economic Risk Index
Economic Growth Outlook
Weaker Growth Trajectory In Sight
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS IMPORTS IN 2016
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS EXPORTS IN 2016
Monetary Policy
Price Pressures Will Keep BoC On The Hook For Three Hikes
Monetary Policy Framework
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
Currency Forecast
CAD: Broad Sideways Trading Ahead
TABLE: BMI CURRENCY FORECAST
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
The Canadian Economy To 2027
Structural Factors Will
Constrain Growth
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Political Risk Index
Domestic Politics
NAFTA Final Push, All Eyes On Autos
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Long-Term Political Outlook
Strong Foundation, But Some Challenges From Within
Chapter 4: BMI Global Macro Outlook
Signs Of Weakness, But Global Expansion Broadening
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: CANADA – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS

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