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Canada Agribusiness Report Q2 2016

Canada Agribusiness Report Q2 2016

BMI View: We retain a positive outlook for the Canadian agricultural sector. The Canadian grains and beef sectors will be among the winners of the Trans-Pacific Partnership and these expanded export opportunities will support output growth to 2020. However, beef production will be constrained in the short term by tight cattle supplies. The dairy sector will witness less-than-spectacular growth over the course of our forecast period whereas the Canadian sugar production industry will be under pressure from low prices and global production from Brazil and Asia.

Key Forecasts

Barley production growth in 2015/15: 15.5% to 8.23mn tonnes. Output will increase as the crop recovers from the significant losses last years.

Poultry production growth in 2015/16: 1.8% to 1.13mn tonnes. This will be due to consumers' increasing shift away from red meat, making poultry the most consumed meat in Canada.

2016 real GDP growth: 1.4% y-o-y. An increase compared with 1.2% in 2015.

2016 consumer price inflation: 1.5% y-o-y average. An increase compared with 1.1% in 2015.

BMI universe agribusiness market value: 0.6% y-o-y increase to USD37.0bn in 2016. Forecast to increase by an average of around 1.5% annually between 2016 and 2020.


BMI Industry View
SWOT
Agribusiness
Industry Forecast
Grains Outlook
Table: Canada - Grains Production & Consumption Outlook
Table: Risks To Outlook
Table: Grains Production & Consumption (Canada 2013-2020)
Sugar Outlook
Table: Canada - Sugar Production & Consumption Outlook
Table: Risks To Outlook
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Canada 2014-2020)
Dairy Outlook
Table: Canada - Dairy Production & Consumption Outlook
Table: Risks To Outlook
Table: Dairy Production & Consumption (Canada 2013-2020)
Livestock Outlook
Table: Canada - Livestock Production & Consumption Outlook
Table: Risks To Outlook
Table: Livestock Production & Consumption (Canada 2013-2020)
Commodity Price Analysis
Global - Global Commodities Strategy
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts
Upstream Analysis
Americas GM Outlook
Americas Machinery Outlook
Table: Select Companies - Sales Forecasts By Region (Company-based estimates)
Americas Fertiliser Outlook
Downstream Analysis
Food
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Food Sales (Canada 2013-2020)
Regional Overview
Table: TPP - Main Winners And Losers For Agriculture
Competitive Landscape
Table: Canada - Major Agribusiness Companies
Demographic Forecast
Demographic Outlook
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Canada 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Canada 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Canada 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Canada 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Canada 1990-2025)
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sector-Specific Methodology

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