Cameroon Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016

Cameroon Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016

BMI View: With an FID on Golar LNG and a stronger-than-expected oil production growth, Cameroon benefited from an upward revision in both oil and gas production over our forecast period. In addition, the country will now become an LNG net exporter from 2017 onward, an important tool for exports diversification, notably after the large oil price drop over the past year. Nevertheless, we maintain that Cameroon remains a modest oil and gas producer and more exploration will need to take place to boost its long-term prospects further.

Ongoing exploration provides much-needed upside risk to Cameroon's oil reserves. The country's offshore basins are the most prospective, with the Rio del Rey Basin to attract the most interest. In the context of bearish oil prices, we believe that Cameroon stands to benefit from international oil companies (IOCs) refocusing investments towards more proven and shallow-water offshore plays.

In December 2015, Bowleven submitted the Bomono Exploitation Authorisation Application (BEAA) to the Cameroon authorities as planned. The BEAA outlines plans to develop Bomono following completion of the ongoing extended well testing programme.

In February 2016, Victoria Oil and Gas further expanded its presence in the area by reaching an agreement with Glencore Exploration Cameroon Limited and Afex Global Limited to acquire a 75% interest in Cameroon's Matanda PSC, with AFEX retaining a 25% share. The companies plan to submit a new work program to the Government of Cameroon for approval and expect to commence the first phase of seismic data acquisition in the fourth quarter of 2016.

We estimate oil production rose to just under 90,000b/d in 2015 and we expect production to remain close to this level until 2020, with several small field developments offsetting the decline at maturing fields. However, new exploration and discoveries will be necessary if Cameroon is to stabilise or grow its output and conserve its net export potential in the longer term.

We maintain our current refining forecast, keeping it unchanged this quarter. There are no updates on progress toward the Limbe refinery expansion plans. We note increasing downside risks to the project over the coming quarters, with the government critically lacking funds due to falling oil prices.

BMI Industry View
Table: Headline Forecasts (Cameroon 2014-2020)
Oil & Gas SWOT
Industry Forecast
Upstream Exploration
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Cameroon Licensing Round
Upstream Projects
Table: Cameroon Upstream Project Database
Upstream Production - Oil
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Oil Production (Cameroon 2014-2019)
Table: Oil Production (Cameroon 2020-2025)
Upstream Production - Gas
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Gas Production (Cameroon 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Production (Cameroon 2020-2025)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Cameroon 2014-2019)
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Cameroon 2020-2025)
Refined Fuels Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Cameroon 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Cameroon 2020-2025)
Gas Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Gas Consumption (Cameroon 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Consumption (Cameroon 2020-2025)
Trade - Oil
Crude Oil Forecasts
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Cameroon 2014-2020)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Cameroon 2020-2025)
Refined Fuels Trade Forecasts
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Cameroon 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Cameroon 2020-2025)
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
Table: Gas Net Exports (Cameroon 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Net Exports (Cameroon 2020-2025)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Industry Risk/Reward Index
Africa - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Table: BMI Africa Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Above-Ground Risks Dulling Below-Ground Potential
Table: BMI Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Downstream Sector Holds Limited Opportunity
Table: BMI Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index
Cameroon - Risk/Reward Index
Market Overview
Cameroon Energy Market Overview
Regulatory Structure
Fiscal Regime
Table: Cameroon Fiscal Regime
Licensing Regime
Table: Cameroon Licensing Regime
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
Table: Refineries In Cameroon
Service Stations
Oil Storage Facilities
Oil Terminals/Ports
Oil Pipelines
LNG Terminals
Competitive Landscape
Competitive Landscape Summary
Table: Key Players - Cameroon Energy Sector
Table: Key Upstream Players
Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Profile
Other Summaries
Regional Overview
Africa - Bullish Gas, Bearish Oil
Table: Africa Oil & Gas Production, Consumption, Refining Capacity And Trade
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Weighting

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