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Cameroon Country Risk Report Q4 2018

Cameroon Country Risk Report Q4 2018

Cameroon's economic growth in 2018 will be severely constrained by political instability, as pre-election uncertainty discourages consumer confidence and private investment. However, increasing gas production will offset some of these headwinds.

The purported decision by Cameroon's President Paul Biya to postpone municipal and parliamentary elections reflects the high degree of political instability in Cameroon, owing to the Anglophone crisis. Social instability and violence are likely to continue after the October presidential election, with the postponement of other polls set to prolong unrest.

Key Risks

Political developments in Cameroon in the coming months pose significant risks to President Paul Biya's rule. A more consolidated opposition could potentially unseat Biya, while increasing violence and use of the military have seen the unlikely risk of secession rise.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Country Risk Summary
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Gas Gains Will Offset Political Headwinds To Growth
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
Monetary Policy Framework
Peg Guarantees Benign Inflation Outlook
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
Reforms And Gas Revenues To Drive Fiscal Consolidation
10-Year Forecast
The Cameroonian Economy To 2027
Trend Growth To Remain Strong
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Cameroon Country Risk Q4 2018ContentsPolitical Outlook
Domestic Politics
Cameroon's Election Postponement Highlights Risks Of Major Instability
Long-Term Political Outlook
Presidential Succession And Terrorism Will Pose Headwinds
Global Macro Outlook
Pressure On EM Grows, As Do Divergences
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: CAMEROON – MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS

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