Cameroon Country Risk Report Q1 2021

Cameroon Country Risk Report Q1 2021

The Cameroon economy will see its slowest growth in more than two decades in 2020, on the back of containment measures to halt the spread of Covid-19, a slump in exports and a sharp fall in oil prices.

We at Fitch Solutions anticipate a 1.6% contraction in 2020, down from our previous forecast of a 0.9% fall and 2019's outturn of 5.3%.

Cameroon will, however, be an outperformer among oil producers in Sub-Saharan Africa.

The stable exchange rate, low inflation and loose monetary policy will aid the recovery in 2021, when we expect the economy to return to growth of 4.5%.

Heightened insecurity is set to persist in the troubled anglophone region amid ongoing clashes between separatist groups and government forces.

Beyond the next couple of years, the outlook is fairly bright. Rising gas production and infrastructure investment will mean that GDP growth averages 5.2% between 2022-2029.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Country Risk Summary
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Poised For A Steady Economic Recovery In 2021
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
TABLE: TOP FIVE PRODUCTS EXPORTED BY CAMEROON, 2019
TABLE: TOP FIVE PRODUCTS IMPORTED BY CAMEROON, 2019
Monetary Policy Framework
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
10-Year Forecast
The Cameroonian Economy To 2029
Trend Growth To Remain Strong
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Promised Regional Elections Will Not Resolve Tensions
THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS COUNTRY RISK & INDUSTRY RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings’ Credit Ratings. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research.Cameroon Country Risk Q1 2021ContentsLong-Term Political Outlook
Succession And Regional Unrest Will Offer Long-Term Headwinds
Operational Risk
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
Economic Openness
TABLE: FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS
TABLE: TARIFF AND NON-TARIFF TRADE BARRIERS
TABLE: FREE TRADE ZONES AND INVESTMENT INCENTIVES
TABLE: BARRIERS TO FDI
Utilities Network
TABLE: ELECTRICITY RISKS
TABLE: FUEL RISKS
TABLE: TELECOMMUNICATIONS RISKS
TABLE: WATER RISKS
Global Macro Outlook
Larger Contraction Now, But Stronger Recovery Ahead
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2019-2024)
TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: CAMEROON – MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS

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