Cameroon Country Risk Report Q1 2021
The Cameroon economy will see its slowest growth in more than two decades in 2020, on the back of containment measures to halt the spread of Covid-19, a slump in exports and a sharp fall in oil prices.
We at Fitch Solutions anticipate a 1.6% contraction in 2020, down from our previous forecast of a 0.9% fall and 2019's outturn of 5.3%.
Cameroon will, however, be an outperformer among oil producers in Sub-Saharan Africa.
The stable exchange rate, low inflation and loose monetary policy will aid the recovery in 2021, when we expect the economy to return to growth of 4.5%.
Heightened insecurity is set to persist in the troubled anglophone region amid ongoing clashes between separatist groups and government forces.
Beyond the next couple of years, the outlook is fairly bright. Rising gas production and infrastructure investment will mean that GDP growth averages 5.2% between 2022-2029.
- Executive Summary
- Core Views
- Key Risks
- Country Risk Summary
- Economic Risk Index
- Political Risk Index
- SWOT
- Economic – SWOT Analysis
- Political – SWOT Analysis
- Economic Outlook
- Economic Growth Outlook
- Poised For A Steady Economic Recovery In 2021
- GDP By Expenditure Outlook
- TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
- TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
- TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
- TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
- TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
- Outlook On External Position
- TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
- TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
- TABLE: TOP FIVE PRODUCTS EXPORTED BY CAMEROON, 2019
- TABLE: TOP FIVE PRODUCTS IMPORTED BY CAMEROON, 2019
- Monetary Policy Framework
- TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
- Structural Fiscal Position
- TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
- 10-Year Forecast
- The Cameroonian Economy To 2029
- Trend Growth To Remain Strong
- TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
- Political Outlook
- Domestic Politics
- Promised Regional Elections Will Not Resolve Tensions
- THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS COUNTRY RISK & INDUSTRY RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings’ Credit Ratings. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research.Cameroon Country Risk Q1 2021ContentsLong-Term Political Outlook
- Succession And Regional Unrest Will Offer Long-Term Headwinds
- Operational Risk
- TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
- Economic Openness
- TABLE: FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS
- TABLE: TARIFF AND NON-TARIFF TRADE BARRIERS
- TABLE: FREE TRADE ZONES AND INVESTMENT INCENTIVES
- TABLE: BARRIERS TO FDI
- Utilities Network
- TABLE: ELECTRICITY RISKS
- TABLE: FUEL RISKS
- TABLE: TELECOMMUNICATIONS RISKS
- TABLE: WATER RISKS
- Global Macro Outlook
- Larger Contraction Now, But Stronger Recovery Ahead
- TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2019-2024)
- TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
- TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
- Index Tables
- TABLE: CAMEROON – MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS
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