Cameroon Country Risk Report Q1 2020

Cameroon Country Risk Report Q1 2020

We expect the Cameroonian economy to continue gathering momentum over the coming quarters. Private consumption will benefit from rising incomes in the cocoa sector and from continued benign inflation. Cocoa production and rising gas output bode well for exports over the coming quarters, while the country's healthy pipeline of infrastructure projects will also help to boost headline growth.

We continue to expect that Cameroon's Anglophone dispute will be difficult to resolve, with this view being underscored by an opposition boycott of government-organised talks. Anglophone leaders are sceptical of the government's commitment to resolving the crisis and will, instead, pursue international mediation, which is unlikely to be acceptable to the Cameroonian authorities. Attacks and clashes are, therefore, likely to continue over the coming quarters. At this stage, we do not think that the crisis will escalate to a full-scale civil war or have a meaningful impact on the economy, although risks to these views are to the downside.

Key Risks

Political developments in Cameroon in the Anglophone regions pose significant risks to President Paul Biya's rule. Increasing violence and heavy-handed tactics by security services has seen the unlikely risk of secession rise.

There are also upside risks from the possible construction of a large hydropower plant.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Country Risk Summary
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Agriculture, Gas And Infrastructure To Drive Cameroonian Growth Higher
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
Outlook On External Position
Cameroonian Current Account To Remain In Deficit
TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
TABLE: TOP FIVE PRODUCTS EXPORTED BY CAMEROON
TABLE: TOP FIVE PRODUCTS IMPORTED BY CAMEROON
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
Monetary Policy Framework
Peg Guarantees Benign Inflation Outlook
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
10-Year Forecast
The Cameroonian Economy To 2028
Trend Growth To Remain Strong
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings’ Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings’ analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.Cameroon Country Risk Q1 2020ContentsPolitical Outlook
Domestic Politics
Talks Boycott By Cameroon Opposition Point To A Prolonged Crisis
Long-Term Political Outlook
Succession And Regional Unrest Will Offer Long-Term Headwinds
Operational Risk
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
Economic Openness
TABLE: TARIFF AND NON-TARIFF TRADE BARRIERS
TABLE: FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS
TABLE: FREE TRADE ZONES AND INVESTMENT INCENTIVES
TABLE: BARRIERS TO FDI
Utilities Network
TABLE: ELECTRICITY RISKS
TABLE: FUEL RISKS
TABLE: TELECOMMUNICATIONS RISKS
TABLE: WATER RISKS
Global Macro Outlook
Downside Revisions To Stabilise Somewhat, But Policy Risks Remain
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2018-2023)
TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: CAMEROON – MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS

Download our eBook: How to Succeed Using Market Research

Learn how to effectively navigate the market research process to help guide your organization on the journey to success.

Download eBook