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Cameroon Country Risk Report Q1 2019

Cameroon Country Risk Report Q1 2019

Economic growth in Cameroon will accelerate in the coming quarters but political risks will prevent it from reaching its full potential

At the time of writing, we expected that incumbent President Paul Biya would win the presidential election on October 7, extending his 35-year period in office Unrest in the anglophone north-west and south-west regions of Cameroon will continue to be pertinent after the election, with the anglophone community likely to be dissatisfied

Key Risks

Political developments in Cameroon in the coming months pose significant risks to President Paul Biya's rule Increasing violence and heavy-handed tactics by security services has seen the unlikely risk of secession rise


Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Country Risk Summary
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Political Risks Will Constrain Otherwise Bright Outlook In Cameroon
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
Monetary Policy
Peg Guarantees Benign Inflation Outlook
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
Reforms And Gas Revenues To Drive Fiscal Consolidation
10-Year Forecast
The Cameroonian Economy To 2027
Trend Growth To Remain Strong
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Cameroon Country Risk Q1 2019THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings’ Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings’ analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.ContentsPolitical Outlook
Domestic Politics
Unrest In Cameroon To Remain Elevated In Coming Months
Long-Term Political Outlook
Succession And Regional Unrest Will Offer Long-Term Headwinds
Operational Risk
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
Economic Openness
TABLE: TARIFF AND NON-TARIFF TRADE BARRIERS
TABLE: FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS
TABLE: FREE TRADE ZONES AND INVESTMENT INCENTIVES
TABLE: BARRIERS TO FDI
Utilities Network
TABLE: ELECTRICITY RISKS
TABLE: FUEL RISKS
TABLE: TELECOMMUNICATIONS RISKS
TABLE: WATER RISKS
Global Macro Outlook
Contagion Risks Limited To EMs For Now
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, % Y-O-Y
Index Tables
TABLE: CAMEROON – MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS

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