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Cameroon Country Risk Report 20 2018

Cameroon Country Risk Report 20 2018

Increasing gas output will offer significant tailwinds to Cameroon's economy over the coming quarters. This will offset some of the headwinds posed by weaker public investment and increased political instability.

Cameroon's fiscal credentials are set to improve in the coming years, largely owing to increasing revenues from the oil and gas sector.

Meanwhile, a new deal signed with the IMF is also likely to limit the scope for expanding recurrent expenditure and, as such, we expect debt levels to remain sustainable over our long-term outlook.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Economic Risk Index
Economic Growth Outlook
Political Risks Will Stymie Growth
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
Outlook On External Position
Investment And Export Opportunities Advantageous To External Position
TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
Monetary Policy Framework
Peg Guarantees Benign Inflation Outlook
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
Structural Fiscal Position
Improving Commodity Prices Will Boost Fiscal Outlook
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
The Cameroonian Economy To 2027
Trend Growth To Remain Strong
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Political Risk Index
Domestic Politics
Policy Continuity And Social Instability To Follow If Biya Re-Elected
Long-Term Political Outlook
Presidential Succession And Terrorism Will Pose Headwinds
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
Operational Risk
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
Business Crime
TABLE: BUSINESS RESPONSE TO WHITE COLLAR AND ORGANISED RISK
Education
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
Trade Tensions Take Centre Stage
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: CAMEROON – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS

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