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Burundi Country Risk Report Q1 2018

Burundi Country Risk Report Q1 2018

The Burundian economy will contract for a second consecutive yearin 2018 as political instability continues to constrain investment andgovernment spending. High inflation and a government order thatcivil servants must contribute to a fund to finance elections in 2020will also provide headwinds to private consumption.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Economic Risk Index
Economic Growth Outlook
Economy To Contract Again In 2018
The Burundian economy will contract for a second consecutive year in 2018 as political instability will continue to constrain investment
2020 will also present headwinds to private consumption
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: TOP FIVE EXPORTS IN 2014
TABLE: TOP FIVE IMPORTS 2014
Monetary Policy Framework
Structural Fiscal Position
Long-Term Economic Outlook
Domestic Unrest Will Hinder Economic Growth Prospects
Burundi's economy is set for a decade of restrained growth as unrest within the country continues to thwart growth opportunities.
ahead. Furthermore, land scarcity and high poverty levels will weigh further on the likelihood of domestic stability and economic
growth
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Chapter 2: Political Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Political Risk Index
Domestic Politics
Renewed Instability Likely In 2018
Burundi is likely to see renewed instability in 2018 as popular frustration with a deteriorating economy, and plans to remove terms limits
to allow President Pierre Nkurunziza to run again in 2020, will likely bring Burundians back onto the streets. We also see scope for
increased militant attacks by Burundian groups based in the DRC
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Long-Term Political Outlook
No End In Sight To Domestic Unrest
Chapter 3: Demographic Outlook
Demographic Outlook
TABLE: POPULATION BY AGE GROUP
TABLE: POPULATION BY AGE GROUP, %
TABLE: POPULATION HEADLINE INDICATORS
TABLE: KEY POPULATION RATIOS
TABLE: URBAN/RURAL POPULATION & LIFE EXPECTANCY
Chapter 4: BMI Global Macro Outlook
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES : REAL GDP GROWTH, %
y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS : REAL GDP GROWTH, %
y-o-y

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