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Bulgaria Shipping Report Q1 2016

BMI Industry View
SWOT
Shipping
Political
Economic
Operational Risk
Industry Forecast
Port Of Varna Throughput
Table: Major Ports Data (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
Table: Trade Overview (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
Table: Bulgaria's Top Import Sources, 2006-2013 (USDmn)
Table: Bulgaria's Top Export Destinations, 2006-2013 (USDmn)
Market Overview
Bulgaria Container Shipping Market Overview
Company Profile
Navibulgar
Shipping - Global Industry View
Bright Spot For Shipping: Low Bunker Prices
Table: BMI Bunker Fuel (IFO180 & MGO) Price Forecast
Short-Term Outlook (three-to-six months)
Long-Term Outlook
Risks To Outlook
Global Company Strategy
Maersk Line
Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC)
CMA CGM
Evergreen Line
COSCO Container Lines Company (COSCON)
Macroeconomic Forecasts
Economic Analysis
Table: Real GDP Growth %
Table: GDP Contribution To Growth (Bulgaria 2012-2020)
Demographic Forecast
Demographic Outlook
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Bulgaria 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Bulgaria 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Bulgaria 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Bulgaria 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Bulgaria 1990-2025)

Bulgaria Shipping Report Q1 2016

BMI View: In 2016 the port of Varna is set to see tonnage growth of 2.8% y-o-y, a fairly significant fall onthe forecast 14.0% gain of 2015. The key reason for this is the sluggish performance of the economy, whichwill continue to grow below pre-crisis historical averages. Private consumption will continue to be thestrongest growth component in the economy, but we forecast small expansions in this indicator, of only1.4% in 2016 and 1.6% in 2017, tempering our shipping forecasts.

The business environment remains challenging, with high levels of corruption and inefficiency.Significantly for the shipping industry, lower oil prices are reducing the incentive to invest in domesticproduction as import costs fall, thus hampering export-led shipping.


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