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Bulgaria Retail Report Q1 2016

Bulgaria Retail Report Q1 2016

BMI View: As demand for skilled workers in Bulgaria outpaces supply, wages will continue to rise over thenext five years. With substantial levels of urbanisation and ever improving transport networks locally andinternationally Bulgaria has an easily accessible and increasingly affluent consumer target market.

However country rewards remain poor and the continued decline of the population size presents risk forretailers.

Opportunities for retail growth will be limited in the medium term to 2019. A lack of impetus to continuewith political and economic reforms will dampen investors' enthusiasm, and economic growth is forecast tobe sluggish, at 1.0% this year, not rising above 2.0% until after the end of our forecast period. Bulgaria'sshaky financial system is under strain as a result of exposure to Greek banks as well as past bankruptcies,including the default by Corporate Commercial Bank in 2014. Even though Bulgaria's public debt is thesecond smallest in the EU (27.6% of GDP in 2014; only Estonia has a lower rate), it is struggling to balanceits budget. The parliament was seeking to approve the issue of EUR8bn of bonds over the next three years.

Fitch approved new Issuer Default Ratings for Bulgaria in June 2015, assessing its long-term foreigncurrency debt with BBB- and local currency debt with BBB with a stable outlook. Such ratings may preventthe country from borrowing cheaply in the next five years.


BMI Industry View
SWOT
Political
Economic
Industry Forecast
Headline Retail Forecast
Table: Total Household Spending (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % of GDP (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
Retail Sector Forecast
Food And Drink
Table: Food, Drink & Tobacco Spending (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
Clothing And Footwear
Table: Clothing & Footwear Spending (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
Household Goods
Table: Household Goods Spending (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
Household Numbers And Income Forecast
Table: Household Income Data (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
Table: Labour Market Data (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
Demographic Forecast
Table: Total Population (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Babies (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Young Children (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Children (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Young People (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Older Teenagers (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
Table: Population: 21yrs + (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Young Adults (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Middle Aged (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Urban (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
Macroeconomic Forecasts
Economic Analysis
Industry Risk Reward Index
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Index
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Risk/Reward Index, Q116
Bulgaria Risk/Reward Index
Rewards
Risks
Market Overview
Mass Grocery Retail
Shopping Centres
E-Commerce
Competitive Landscape
Food And Drink
Clothing And Footwear
DIY
Consumer Electronics
Glossary
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sources
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators

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