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Bulgaria Country Risk Report Q4 2019

Bulgaria Country Risk Report Q4 2019

Buoyant domestic demand and robust, albeit slowing, export growth will help sustain Bulgaria's robust near-term growth outlook. However, over the longer term, greater structural reform is needed in order to arrest stagnating productivity growth.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Country Risk Summary
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Bulgarian Growth To Rebound As Headwinds Lurk On The Horizon
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
External Trade And Investment Outlook
Bulgarian Export Sector To Face Headwinds Amid Eurozone Slowdown
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
Monetary Policy
Bulgarian Monetary Conditions To Remain Loose As ECB Turns More Dovish
Monetary Policy Framework
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
Temporary Fiscal Slippage Will Not Hinder Bulgaria's Eurozone Accession Plans
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
Bulgaria Country Risk Q4 2019THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings’ Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report is solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings’ analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.Contents10-Year Forecast
The Bulgarian Economy To 2028
The Decade Of Weakness
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
European Parliamentary Election Results Support Bulgarian Political Stability
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Long-Term Political Outlook
Challenges Remain Despite EU Membership
Operational Risk
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
Labour Costs
TABLE: LABOUR REGULATIONS GOVERNING FLEXIBILITY OF WORKFORCE
Legal Environment
TABLE: BUREAUCRATIC PROCEDURES
TABLE: BUREAUCRATIC BARRIERS
Global Macro Outlook
Global Growth Deceleration, But Policy Increasingly Supportive
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2018-2023)
TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: BULGARIA – MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS

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